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Serie B
Novorizontino v Ponte Preta
TBANovorizontino host Ponte Preta on 12 October in Serie B, and the most striking story in this fixture is Ponte Preta's near-total inability to find the back of the net. The visitors have failed to score in 9 of their last 10 matches across all venues, and in 16 of their last 20 away games. Their last three outings — losses to Juventude 0–2 at home, Cuiaba 0–2 away, and Botafogo SP 2–0 away — all ended with Ponte Preta on the scoreless side. Their expected goals for in recent matches with xG data sit at just 0.48 per game, a figure that tells you the chances they are creating are minimal. In the head-to-head, 11 of 16 meetings between these two sides saw at least one team fail to score, and the only recent meeting within the last 12 months — a 0–2 defeat for Ponte Preta at their own ground in June — was another scoreless effort from the visitors. Novorizontino, by contrast, are in commanding form. They have won their last two matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding none, including a 3–0 home victory over Goias on 2 October and a 2–0 away win at Nautico Recife on 8 October. Their home record over 20 games is 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses, with an average of 1.45 goals scored per game. Their xG for in recent matches with data available is 2.55 per game, suggesting their attacking output is well above the level the numbers alone might imply. At home, at least one team failed to score in 9 of their 20 games, which aligns with the pattern we see in Ponte Preta's away record. The counter-argument is that Novorizontino's recent scoring form — 2.2 goals per game across their last 10 matches — could open up the game and give Ponte Preta a foothold. Their home record does show 11 of 20 games where both teams found the net, and the market's 38.17% implied probability for both teams to score reflects that risk. However, Ponte Preta's defensive record away is poor — they concede 2.45 goals per game in 20 away matches. Yet their attacking output of 0.35 goals per game away and 0.1 per game in their last 10 makes it very difficult to see them finding a goal in this fixture. The head-to-head at this specific venue is limited: there have been no recent meetings at Novorizontino's ground within the last 12 months. The older meetings at this ground (2024 and 2025) produced a 2–1 Novorizontino win and a 0–1 Ponte Preta win, but those are historical and do not carry much weight against the current form picture. The recent meeting at Ponte Preta's ground in June, where Novorizontino won 2–0, is the most relevant head-to-head data point and reinforces the pattern of Ponte Preta struggling to score. Key Points: - Ponte Preta have failed to score in 9 of their last 10 games and 16 of their last 20 away games - Ponte Preta's last 3 matches all ended with them scoring zero goals, conceding 6 in total - Novorizontino have won their last 2 games, scoring 5 and conceding 0 - 11 of 16 head-to-head meetings between these sides saw at least one team fail to score - Ponte Preta's away record over 20 games: 1 win, 0 draws, 19 losses With Ponte Preta's scoring drought so persistent and Novorizontino's defensive record in recent matches strong, the most compelling angle is that at least one team will keep a clean sheet. I recommend both teams not to score at 1.55.

