Live Football Scores, Statistics & Match Predictions

Santos host Flamengo on 8 October in Serie A, and the numbers tell a clear story about which side holds the advantage. Flamengo's away record over the last 20 games is the standout figure here: 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses, with 2 goals scored per game and just 0.75 conceded. Their latest 10 matches across all venues show 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.1 goals per game and 0.7 conceded. The xG data reinforces this picture — Flamengo's matched sample shows 2.11 expected goals per game for and only 0.81 against, suggesting they create and defend well. Santos, by contrast, sit at 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their 20-game home sample, scoring 1.5 per game and conceding 1.05. Their latest 10 shows 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. They are in good immediate form, having won their last two matches (2–1 at Sao Paulo on 2 October and 2–1 at Remo on 19 September), and their last five overall contains 4 wins and 1 loss. But the home record over 20 games tells a less dominant story than their recent run might suggest. The head-to-head history leans heavily toward Flamengo: 14 wins to Santos's 9 across 29 meetings, with 6 draws. At Santos's ground specifically, the sample is small — just two meetings — but Santos won one (1–0 on 16 July 2025) and lost one (2–3 on 25 June 2023). The reverse venue at Flamengo's ground saw 3 meetings with 2 Flamengo wins and 1 Santos win. The counter-argument is Santos's current momentum. Four wins in five matches, including two straight, shows a side in rhythm. Their home record of 9 wins in 20 is respectable, and the split H2H at this ground means there is no overwhelming historical precedent for an away win here. Flamengo's only blemish in their last five is a 1–1 draw at home against Independiente del Valle in the Libertadores on 18 September, where they received a red card in the 65th minute. Key Points: - Flamengo's 20-game away sample: 11W 6D 3L, 2.0 scored per game, 0.75 conceded per game - Flamengo's latest 10: 8W 1D 1L, 2.1 scored per game, 0.7 conceded per game - Santos home 20-game sample: 9W 7D 4L, 1.5 scored per game, 1.05 conceded per game - H2H: Flamengo 14W, Santos 9W, 6D in 29 meetings; at Santos's ground the split is 1W 1L - Santos won their last two matches but the home record over 20 games is less dominant The market prices Flamengo's win at 1.87, implying a 53.48% chance. My reading of the form, the away record, the xG data and the head-to-head puts Flamengo's probability closer to 56%, which gives a small but genuine edge at this price. The away win is the pick.