The final day of the Super League season brings us a fascinating mid-table clash between Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun. While both teams have already secured their status for next season, there's still pride and potentially prize money on the line. Looking at the data, this match presents a clear home advantage scenario. Henan Jianye has been absolutely dominant on their own patch recently, boasting a 75% win rate in their last four home games. What's particularly impressive is their attacking output at home - they're averaging 2.50 goals per game while keeping their defensive record tight with just 0.50 goals conceded per home fixture. The recent form tells an even more compelling story. Henan has beaten some quality opposition recently, including a stunning 2-1 victory away at third-placed Chengdu Better City, a 2-0 home win against fourth-placed Beijing Guoan, and a resounding 4-0 demolition of Dalian Zhixing. Their 5-2 thrashing of Wuhan Three Towns shows they can score goals in bunches when needed. Yunnan Yukun, on the other hand, has been struggling on their travels. Their away form is concerning - just a 25% win rate and they're leaking goals at an alarming rate, conceding 3.25 goals per away game. While they've had some decent results like a 4-1 win at struggling Meizhou Kejia and a 2-0 home victory over Tianjin Teda, their defensive vulnerabilities on the road are hard to ignore. The 0-7 FA Cup hammering at Beijing Guoan and 2-4 league defeat at SHANGHAI SIPG highlight their susceptibility away from home. The head-to-head record shows Yunnan won the only previous meeting 2-1, but that was back in June and both teams' form has significantly evolved since then. Statistically, Henan averages 1.90 goals per game overall while conceding just 1.10, compared to Yunnan's 1.50 scored and 2.10 conceded. The goal expectancy model projects 2.88 goals for Henan versus 1.12 for Yunnan, which aligns perfectly with the home team's strong attacking numbers at home and the visitors' defensive frailties on the road. With both teams well-rested (22 days for Henan, 20 for Yunnan), fitness shouldn't be a factor. The venue advantage combined with current form makes this look like a straightforward home victory. Key Points: - Henan boasts 75% home win rate with 2.50 goals scored per home game - Yunnan concedes 3.25 goals per away game - worst defensive record on the road - Henan has beaten top-4 teams Beijing Guoan and Chengdu Better City recently - Goal expectancy model projects 2.88 goals for Henan vs 1.12 for Yunnan - Both teams have had adequate rest with no recent fixture congestion Given the comprehensive data pointing to Henan's home dominance and Yunnan's away struggles, the home win at 1.70 represents excellent value. The statistical advantages are too significant to ignore.