Everton welcome relegation-threatened Burnley on Tuesday night with both sides desperate for points, but for very different reasons. The Toffees sit 8th in the Premier League with 40 points from 28 games, harbouring outside hopes of European qualification, while Burnley languish in 19th place with just 19 points, fighting to keep their survival hopes alive. The headline statistic that jumps off the page is Everton's alarming home form. Despite their respectable league position, they have failed to win any of their last six home matches (0-3-3), a run that includes defeats to Manchester United (0-1), Bournemouth (1-2), and Brentford (2-4), plus draws against Leeds (1-1), Sunderland (1-1), and Wolves (1-1). During this stretch, Everton are averaging just 1.00 goal per game at home while conceding 1.67. Their most recent result was a thrilling 3-2 victory at Newcastle, suggesting they can perform on the road, but home comforts have been anything but comfortable lately. Burnley arrive with the worst away record in the division over the season, but their recent form tells a different story. The Clarets have shown remarkable resilience against top-tier opposition, securing draws at Chelsea (1-1) and Liverpool (1-1) in their last four away trips, while also beating Crystal Palace 3-2 on the road. They have found the net in 80% of their last ten games overall, though they have kept zero clean sheets during that period. Their matches have been entertainment personified, with 38 total goals across their last ten fixtures (1.80 scored, 2.00 conceded per game). The historical head-to-head heavily favours Everton, particularly at home where they have won 80% of the last nine meetings (4-0-1). However, the most recent encounter in December 2025 ended 0-0, and given Everton's current struggles in front of their own fans, that result might be more relevant than the 3-0 and 2-0 drubbings that preceded it. From a betting perspective, the market has priced Everton as heavy favourites at 1.65, but that looks short given their six-game winless run at home. Burnley at 5.50 offers intrigue given their recent draws against elite opposition, though their overall quality remains questionable. The real value lies in the goal markets. Both teams have seen Both Teams To Score land in 80% of their last ten games. Everton's home games have featured BTTS in five of their last six (83%), while Burnley's away trips have seen both sides net in three of their last four (75%). With goal expectancies suggesting 2.84 total goals and both sides showing defensive vulnerabilities—Everton conceding 1.67 per game at home and Burnley shipping 1.75 per game away—the conditions are ripe for a match where neither defence can keep the other out. **Key Points:** - Everton have failed to win any of their last six home matches (0-3-3 record) - Burnley have drawn 50% of their last four away games, including results at Chelsea and Liverpool - Both teams have 80% BTTS rates across their last ten matches - Everton's last six home games averaged 2.67 goals per game - Burnley's last ten games averaged 3.8 goals per game (18 scored, 20 conceded) - The last meeting between these sides ended 0-0 in December 2025 **Summary:** Everton's home struggles make the 1.65 unbackable, while Burnley's resilience makes the 5.50 tempting but risky. Instead, focus on the goal markets where both teams' defensive frailties and attacking consistency converge. With BTTS landing in 80% of recent games for both sides and neither defence looking solid, the value lies in backing Both Teams To Score at 1.91.