The Premier League clash between Tottenham and Brighton presents a stark contrast in current form and league positioning. Tottenham sits in 18th place with 30 points from 32 games, while Brighton is comfortably placed in 9th with 46 points. This gap in the standings is reflected in their recent performance metrics. Tottenham's recent form has been concerning. In their last 10 games, they have secured only 1 win and 1 draw, resulting in a win rate of just 10%. Their defensive record is particularly vulnerable, conceding 2.50 goals per game on average over the same period. At home, their performance has been even more erratic, with a win rate of only 20% in their last 5 home fixtures. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 matches. Conversely, Brighton has been in significantly better shape. They have won 5 of their last 10 games, achieving a points per game average of 1.60 compared to Tottenham's 0.40. Brighton's away form is robust, with a 60% win rate in their last 5 away games. Their defense is also more stable, conceding only 0.90 goals per game recently. Head-to-head history adds another layer to the analysis. While Tottenham has historically won 5 of 10 meetings, the recent trend favors Brighton. In the last 5 encounters, Brighton has won 3 matches, including a 4-1 victory in May 2025. The goal expectancy data supports a high-scoring environment, with an expected goal total of 2.90 (Home 1.00, Away 1.90). From a betting perspective, the odds for an Away Win sit at 2.50, implying a 40% probability. Given Brighton's superior form, higher league position, and the goal expectancy suggesting they are more likely to score, we estimate a true win probability closer to 46%. This creates a positive expected value (EV) of over 15%, meeting the value threshold. The disparity in defensive stability and recent results makes the Away Win the most logical selection. **Key Points:** - Tottenham: 18th place, 1 win in last 10 games, conceding 2.50 goals/game. - Brighton: 9th place, 5 wins in last 10 games, conceding 0.90 goals/game. - H2H: Brighton won 3 of the last 5 meetings. - Goal Expectancy: Brighton 1.90 vs Tottenham 1.00. **Summary:** Based on the significant form gap and goal expectancy, the value lies with the visitors. Our recommended bet is **Brighton to Win** (Away Win). **Recommended Bet:** Away Win