The upcoming Premier League clash between Brighton and Chelsea on 2026-04-21 presents a compelling opportunity for value betting. With both teams showing contrasting form trajectories, the data points strongly towards a Brighton victory at home. Brighton enters this fixture with a 1.60 points per game average over their last 10 matches, significantly outperforming Chelsea's 0.70 PPG. This form disparity is the primary signal supporting a home win. Brighton's home record against Chelsea is particularly telling. In the last four head-to-head meetings at the Amex, Brighton has won three times and drawn one, giving them a 75% win rate in this specific matchup. While Chelsea has historically been competitive, their recent away form is concerning, with only a 20% win rate on the road and a high concession rate of 2.60 goals per game away from Stamford Bridge. The goal expectancy data suggests a high-scoring affair, with a combined expected goal total of 3.20. However, the primary value lies in the match outcome. The bookmakers have priced Brighton's win at 2.45, implying a 40.8% probability. Given Brighton's 50% general home win rate and the 75% H2H home win rate against Chelsea, the true probability appears significantly higher, creating a clear edge exceeding the 6% threshold required for value. Chelsea's defensive frailties are evident; they have conceded 2.10 goals per game in their last 10 matches, while Brighton has kept 30% clean sheets at home. Despite Chelsea's attacking output of 1.80 goals per game away, their inability to secure wins on the road (20% win rate) makes an away victory unlikely. Brighton's recent results, including wins against Burnley and Sunderland, show they are capable of capitalizing on Chelsea's defensive leaks. Key Points: - Brighton's home win rate against Chelsea is 75% (3 wins, 1 loss). - Chelsea's away win rate is only 20%. - Brighton's form (1.60 PPG) is double Chelsea's (0.70 PPG). - Goal expectancy suggests 3.20 total goals, but the value lies in the Home Win. - Bookmaker odds of 2.45 imply 40.8% probability, while data suggests ~50% or higher. Based on the 6% edge requirement and multiple confirmatory signals, the recommended bet is a Brighton Home Win.