Match Timeline
F. Kadioglu⚽
Wesley Fofana🟨M. Wieffer🔄W. Fofana🔄J. Hinshelwood⚽Yankuba Minteh🟨L. Delap🔄R. Lavia🔄Y. Minteh🔄K. Mitoma🔄G. Rutter🔄D. Welbeck⚽J. Hinshelwood🔄M. Gusto🔄Match Statistics
Starting Lineups
Brighton1:1
Starting XI
Chelsea1:1
Starting XI
Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 BrightonHome | Rating |  ChelseaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,636.6 | Overall | 1,617.2 |
| 1,620.4 | Match venue | 1,607.1 |
| 1,620.4 | At home | 1,621.3 |
| 1,568.2 | Away | 1,607.1 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,553.9 | Attack | 1,557.2 |
| 1,617.7 | Defence | 1,585.9 |
| 1,539.9 | Home attack | 1,544.1 |
| 1,547.8 | Away attack | 1,568.2 |
| 1,598.1 | Home defence | 1,601.5 |
| 1,581 | Away defence | 1,565.3 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,675 | Goal environment | 2,053.3 |
| 1,563.3 | Home goals | 1,771.7 |
| 1,611.7 | Away goals | 1,781.7 |
| 1,513.3 | Possession | 1,538.5 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,480.7 | Set-piece attack | 1,560.4 |
| 1,481.7 | Set-piece defence | 1,558.8 |
| 1,564.7 | Close games | 1,547.6 |
| 1,657.1 | Winning margin | 1,633.9 |
Match venue compares Brighton at home with Chelsea away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
The upcoming Premier League clash between Brighton and Chelsea on 2026-04-21 presents a compelling opportunity for value betting. With both teams showing contrasting form trajectories, the data points strongly towards a Brighton victory at home. Brighton enters this fixture with a 1.60 points per game average over their last 10 matches, significantly outperforming Chelsea's 0.70 PPG. This form disparity is the primary signal supporting a home win. Brighton's home record against Chelsea is particularly telling. In the last four head-to-head meetings at the Amex, Brighton has won three times and drawn one, giving them a 75% win rate in this specific matchup. While Chelsea has historically been competitive, their recent away form is concerning, with only a 20% win rate on the road and a high concession rate of 2.60 goals per game away from Stamford Bridge. The goal expectancy data suggests a high-scoring affair, with a combined expected goal total of 3.20. However, the primary value lies in the match outcome. The bookmakers have priced Brighton's win at 2.45, implying a 40.8% probability. Given Brighton's 50% general home win rate and the 75% H2H home win rate against Chelsea, the true probability appears significantly higher, creating a clear edge exceeding the 6% threshold required for value. Chelsea's defensive frailties are evident; they have conceded 2.10 goals per game in their last 10 matches, while Brighton has kept 30% clean sheets at home. Despite Chelsea's attacking output of 1.80 goals per game away, their inability to secure wins on the road (20% win rate) makes an away victory unlikely. Brighton's recent results, including wins against Burnley and Sunderland, show they are capable of capitalizing on Chelsea's defensive leaks. Key Points: - Brighton's home win rate against Chelsea is 75% (3 wins, 1 loss). - Chelsea's away win rate is only 20%. - Brighton's form (1.60 PPG) is double Chelsea's (0.70 PPG). - Goal expectancy suggests 3.20 total goals, but the value lies in the Home Win. - Bookmaker odds of 2.45 imply 40.8% probability, while data suggests ~50% or higher. Based on the 6% edge requirement and multiple confirmatory signals, the recommended bet is a Brighton Home Win.
Read Full Preview →