Friday night Eerste Divisie action sees ninth-placed Dordrecht host struggling MVV, who sit 16th in the table with just 31 points from 29 games. The hosts are enjoying a solid season and come into this clash with significantly better form, particularly on home soil where they have been formidable. Dordrecht have won five of their last ten matches, averaging 1.70 points per game during this stretch. Their home record is particularly impressive, with a 60% win rate from their last five outings at their own ground. They have been finding the net with regularity, scoring exactly 2.00 goals per game on average in front of their own fans. Recent home victories include a convincing 3-0 dismantling of Helmond Sport and a narrow 1-0 win against Emmen. Even in defeat, they have shown attacking intent, as seen in the 3-4 thriller against FC Eindhoven and the 3-2 victory over Den Bosch. Their only recent home slip-up was a surprising 0-1 reverse against Jong Ajax, but that came against a side averaging just 1.00 points per game, suggesting it was an anomaly rather than a trend. In stark contrast, MVV arrive with alarming away statistics that make for grim reading for their travelling supporters. Over their last five away fixtures, they have suffered four defeats, conceding a staggering 3.00 goals per game while managing to score just 0.40 goals per game on average. Their recent away day results paint a picture of a side completely lost on the road: a 0-5 demolition at FC Eindhoven, a 0-4 drubbing at Cambuur, and a 0-3 defeat at league leaders ADO Den Haag. Their only away win in this sequence came at Den Bosch (2-1), but that was against a side with defensive frailties of their own. MVV have failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last ten games overall, and their defensive vulnerability is compounded by a lack of attacking threat when away from home. The head-to-head record between these sides is surprisingly balanced at four wins apiece from the last nine meetings, but the current form gap is impossible to ignore. Eight of those nine encounters have produced over 2.5 goals, suggesting open contests, but MVV's current inability to score away (just two goals in their last five road trips) makes that less likely this time around. The goal expectancies support a home dominance narrative, with Dordrecht projected at 2.50 goals to MVV's 0.90. Given MVV's defensive capitulation on the road and Dordrecht's consistent home scoring, the value lies with the hosts despite the short price. Key Points: • Dordrecht have won 60% of their last five home games, scoring 2.00 goals per game • MVV have lost 80% of their last five away games, conceding 3.00 goals per game and scoring just 0.40 • MVV have zero clean sheets in their last ten matches • Dordrecht have scored in 80% of their last ten games, including against promotion-chasing Jong PSV (1-1) and Vitesse (2-1 away) • The goal expectancy models project Dordrecht at 2.50 goals compared to MVV's 0.90 Summary: MVV's away form is genuinely relegation-worthy, with four heavy defeats in their last five road trips highlighting systemic issues at both ends of the pitch. Dordrecht, meanwhile, have been reliable at home and possess enough firepower to exploit MVV's fragile defence. At 1.44, the home win represents solid value given the disparity in current form and the statistical dominance Dordrecht enjoy in this fixture. Back the hosts to collect three comfortable points.