Roda hosts Willem II in the Eerste Divisie on April 6, 2026. The data reveals a stark contrast in form between the two sides, pointing towards a potential away victory. Roda's home performance has been concerning, with a win rate of just 20% in their last five home games. They have managed only 0.6 goals per game at home while conceding 1.4 goals per game. Recent home results include draws and losses against teams like Vitesse and ADO Den Haag, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. In contrast, Willem II has been formidable on the road. Their last four away games resulted in a 75% win rate, with an impressive average of 3.0 goals scored per game and only 0.5 goals conceded. This offensive output is significantly higher than Roda's home scoring rate of 0.6. The goal expectancies support this trend, projecting 2.20 goals for Willem II compared to just 0.55 for Roda. The head-to-head record further favors the visitors. In their last nine meetings, Willem II has won four times, while Roda has won three. Specifically, Roda's home record against Willem II shows a 25% win rate (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses in the last four home fixtures). This historical context aligns with the current form disparity. The betting market offers odds of 3.00 for an away win, implying a 33.3% probability. Given Willem II's 75% away win rate in recent fixtures and Roda's 20% home win rate, the true probability of an away win is likely significantly higher, suggesting a value edge. While odds below 1.6 are generally avoided due to long-term profitability concerns, the 3.00 odds provide sufficient cushion for variance. With multiple confirmatory signals—form, goal expectancy, and head-to-head—the away win stands out as the primary selection. Key Points: - Roda Home Win Rate: 20% (last 5 games) - Willem II Away Win Rate: 75% (last 4 games) - Willem II Away Goals/Game: 3.00 - Roda Home Goals/Game: 0.60 - H2H: Willem II leads recent encounters - Goal Expectancy: Willem II 2.20, Roda 0.55 In summary, the data strongly supports an Away Win for Willem II at 3.00 odds.