Friday night football in the Jupiler Pro League sees sixth-placed Gent host twelfth-placed Zulte Waregem in a fixture that looks heavily weighted toward the home side. With the season entering its final stretch, Gent are within touching distance of the top four and need to capitalize on home advantage against a visiting side with a dreadful away record. Gent's recent form presents a mixed but ultimately promising picture. While they've suffered frustrating home defeats to lower-tier opposition like Cercle Brugge (0-1) and OH Leuven (1-3), their ability to turn it on against stronger teams is undeniable. Their last three home victories include a commanding 4-0 demolition of Standard Liege, a 4-2 thriller against fourth-placed Anderlecht, and most recently a solid 3-1 win over fifth-placed KV Mechelen. This Jekyll and Hyde nature is concerning, but the underlying numbers suggest firepower is never the issue – they're averaging 2.00 goals per game at home and carry a positive finishing delta of +0.18, indicating clinical conversion in front of goal. The contrast with Zulte Waregem couldn't be starker. The visitors arrive with eight defeats from their last ten matches and a catastrophic away record that reads five straight losses on the road. While they've shown attacking intent in these defeats – scoring in four of those five away games including a 3-4 thriller at Club Brugge and a 2-3 loss at St. Truiden – their defensive frailties are alarming. They're conceding 2.80 goals per game away from home and their finishing delta of -0.11 suggests they're not converting their chances at the other end either. The head-to-head record heavily favors Gent, with six wins from the last nine meetings and crucially, no draws. Gent won the reverse fixture 4-1 back in October and have historically dominated this fixture. The goal expectancies point toward another open game (combined 4.17 xG), but given Zulte's defensive record and Gent's tendency to raise their game against beatable opposition at home, the value lies in the match outcome rather than the goals markets. **Key Points:** • Gent have won 5 of their last 10 matches, including impressive victories over 4th-placed Anderlecht (4-2) and 5th-placed KV Mechelen (3-1) • Zulte Waregem have lost 8 of their last 10 games and are winless in their last 5 away fixtures (5 defeats), conceding 2.80 goals per game on the road • Gent average 2.00 goals per game at home and have beaten Zulte in 6 of the last 9 meetings with no draws • Zulte's away defensive record is the third-worst in the league over the last 10 games, with only 1 clean sheet in that period • The finishing deltas favor Gent (+0.18) over Zulte (-0.11), suggesting Gent are more clinical with their chances **Summary:** Despite Gent's occasional slip-ups against lesser lights, the disparity in form, home advantage, and Zulte's catastrophic away record make the home win the clear value play at 2.07. Zulte's inability to keep clean sheets on the road (conceding in 9 of their last 10 away) combined with Gent's proven ability to dispatch mid-table opposition at home gives us a solid edge. I'm backing the home win.