The Dundee derby arrives with both sides desperate for points, but it's the goal markets that catch my eye rather than the match odds. Dundee have found their shooting boots at just the right time, while Dundee United's away defensive record suggests we're in for an open contest. Dundee's form curve is pointing firmly upwards. That 2-1 victory over Motherwell last weekend was no fluke – they beat a team averaging 2.30 points per game and boasting a 70% clean sheet rate. Prior to that, they rattled three past Hibernian in a 3-3 thriller and scored three more in a 2-3 away win at Aberdeen. The trend data backs this up: their goals scored trajectory is improving, and they're averaging 1.75 goals per game on home soil. The home side's attacking metrics support this revival. They're generating 12.5 shots per home game with 33.9% accuracy, and with a goal expectancy of 2.00 for this fixture, the attacking intent is clear. However, don't expect a shutout. Dundee have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten (10% rate) and concede 1.75 goals per game at home. This is where Dundee United come into the equation – or rather, their alarming away defensive record. The visitors are shipping 2.25 goals per game on their travels and have lost 75% of their last four away fixtures. While they did manage a 3-2 win at Falkirk recently, they also conceded three at Hibernian and three at home to Hearts in their last ten. Their away goal expectancy sits at 1.62, but with Dundee's defensive frailties and United's need for points, this could easily go higher. The head-to-head record is balanced at 3-3-3 over nine meetings, but recent encounters have been lively – including a 4-2 thriller last March. With both teams showing 60% BTTS rates over their last ten games and the Poisson model suggesting 3.62 total goals, the statistics scream goals. At 1.91, the Over 2.5 Goals line represents excellent value. The implied probability is just 52.4%, but given the goal expectancies, recent form (five of Dundee's last eight saw overs, same for United), and the derby tension that often leads to open play, the true probability sits closer to 60%. **Key Points:** • Dundee's attack is heating up: 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 home games including vs top-four sides Motherwell and Hibernian • Dundee United concede 2.25 goals per game away from home with a 75% loss rate in last 4 road trips • Goal expectancies of 2.00 (Home) and 1.62 (Away) suggest 3.62 total goals expected • Both teams have 60% BTTS rates in their last 10 fixtures • Over 2.5 has landed in 5 of Dundee's last 8 and 5 of United's last 8 **Summary:** The derby day pressure often produces cagey affairs, but the current form of these two sides suggests otherwise. Dundee are scoring freely against quality opposition, while United's away defensive record is a car crash waiting to happen. Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 offers the best value with a healthy expected value margin.