Hibernian welcome basement-dwelling Livingston to Easter Road this Saturday in a Premiership clash that promises goals. The hosts sit comfortably in 5th place with 46 points from 29 games, while Livingston prop up the table with just 14 points and a solitary win all season. **Hibernian's Jekyll and Hyde Form** The Hibees have shown their quality in recent weeks with a stunning 2-1 victory away at Celtic, followed by a solid 2-0 home win against ST Mirren. However, consistency remains an issue - they've also suffered a 4-1 humbling at Falkirk and a 1-0 defeat to league leaders Hearts in their last ten outings. At home, they've been formidable defensively, conceding just 0.75 goals per game across their last four matches while maintaining an unbeaten record (50% wins, 50% draws). Their attack averages 1.50 goals per home game, generating an impressive 16.25 shots per match. **Livingston: The Resilient Bottom-Dwellers** Don't let the table fool you - Livingston have been frustrating opponents lately. They're on a seven-game drawing streak across all competitions, including impressive 2-2 and 1-1 results against Rangers and Celtic respectively. However, their defensive frailties were exposed in a 6-2 demolition at Aberdeen, and they concede a worrying 3.00 goals per game away from home. Remarkably, they've found the net in 90% of their last ten matches (scoring 1.67 per away game) despite failing to keep a single clean sheet. **Goal Expectancy Analysis** The Poisson goal expectancies make compelling reading for over bettors: Hibernian 2.25, Livingston 1.21, totaling 3.46 expected goals. This aligns perfectly with Livingston's away trend of high-event football - their last three away fixtures produced 4, 2, and 8 goals respectively. The head-to-head history supports this too, with six of the last nine meetings going over 2.5 goals at an average of 3.33 goals per game. **Key Points:** - Hibernian have scored in 8 of their last 10 games, averaging 1.50 goals per home match - Livingston concede 3.00 goals per away game and have zero clean sheets in their last 10 - The Poisson model projects 3.46 total goals, significantly above the 2.5 threshold - Livingston's last 3 away games: 2-2 (Dundee), 1-1 (Celtic), 2-6 (Aberdeen) - all featuring 2+ goals - Hibernian's home defense (0.75 conceded) meets Livingston's away attack (1.67 scored) **The Verdict** While Hibernian at 1.40 looks a safe bet for the win, the value lies in the goals market. Livingston's inability to defend on the road (3.00 conceded per game) combined with their knack of scoring against anyone (90% BTTS rate) sets up perfectly for a high-scoring contest. With goal expectancies pointing toward 3.5 goals and Livingston's recent away games averaging 4.67 total goals, the Over 2.5 at 1.62 represents excellent value.