The final day of the 2025 League One campaign sees Peterhead host Kelty Hearts in a clash of two struggling sides looking to salvage pride and avoid the bottom spot. Peterhead currently sit 5th with 43 points, while Kelty Hearts languish in 10th place on 26 points. Over their last ten fixtures, Peterhead have managed just two wins, two draws, and six losses, averaging 0.80 points per game. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 17 in that span, recording zero clean sheets. At home, their output drops to 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Kelty Hearts have fared slightly better recently with two wins, four draws, and four losses, yielding 1.00 points per game. They have netted 9 goals and shipped 12, keeping a single clean sheet. On the road, Kelty average just 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded. When these two sides meet, the matches are typically tight affairs. Across nine historical encounters, the average total goals per game hovers around 2.66, with five matches going over 2.5 and four staying under. The most recent meeting on February 14th ended in a 1-1 stalemate. Peterhead hold a slight historical edge at home against Kelty, winning two of three home clashes. However, both teams are showing declining points trends, with Peterhead's 3-game moving average for points sitting at 0.33 and Kelty Hearts at 1.00. The mathematical analysis shows Peterhead's goals scored and points trends are declining, while Kelty Hearts remain stable offensively but struggle away from home. The goal expectancy model projects a total of 2.20 goals for this fixture, derived from Peterhead's home scoring rate of 1.20 and Kelty Hearts' away scoring rate of 1.00. This mathematical projection strongly favors the under. The betting market prices Under 2.5 Goals at 2.05, which implies a probability of roughly 48.8%. Our model, factoring in the low scoring trends, the 1.00 home goals for Peterhead, and Kelty's 0.80 away goals, calculates a success probability closer to 62%. This creates a clear value edge exceeding 10%. With both defenses showing vulnerabilities but attacks lacking firepower, the smart money stays under. Key Points: - Peterhead average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded at home over the last five matches. - Kelty Hearts average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded in their last five away games. - Historical meetings average 2.66 total goals, with the last match ending 1-1. - Goal expectancy model projects 2.20 total goals, strongly supporting Under 2.5. - Market odds of 2.05 for Under 2.5 offer a calculated edge of over 10% against the implied probability. Final Verdict: The data points decisively to a low-scoring affair. Both teams lack consistent attacking output, and the mathematical expectancy of 2.20 goals makes the Under 2.5 Goals market the clear value play at 2.05 odds.