Dinamo Zagreb welcome HNK Gorica to their fortress on Sunday looking to extend their five-point lead at the top of the HNL table. With the champions-elect averaging 2.60 goals per game on home soil and Gorica struggling for consistency on their travels, the market has priced this as a straightforward home win at 1.33 – but that's far too skinny for our money. Instead, we're targeting the goal line where the numbers suggest significant value. The hosts come into this clash in devastating attacking form. Their last three competitive home outings have produced scorelines of 4-0 against Istra 1961, 3-1 versus Vukovar, and a 4-1 Europa League triumph over FCSB. That's 11 goals in three games, averaging 3.67 per match. Even accounting for the 1-3 reverse against Genk in midweek European action – a fixture where rotation and tactical priorities often distort league form – Dinamo have found the net 20 times in their last 10 outings overall. Their underlying metrics support this output: 18.00 shots per game at home with 34.8% accuracy demonstrates sustained attacking pressure that Gorica's backline will struggle to contain. HNK Gorica arrive sitting eighth in the table with just 26 points from 23 games, and their away record makes for grim reading. They've won just 25% of their last four road trips, scoring a paltry 0.75 goals per game while conceding 1.25. Recent away days have seen them blanked 0-2 at Istra, 0-3 at Lokomotiva, and 0-1 at Rijeka – failing to score in three of their last four away fixtures. While they did manage a 1-1 draw at Osijek, their overall attacking output on the road (11.25 shots per game, 31.6% accuracy) suggests they'll struggle to test Dinamo's defence regularly. The head-to-head record heavily favours the home side, with Dinamo winning 80% of their home fixtures against Gorica historically. More importantly for our purposes, five of the last nine meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, and with Dinamo's current attacking prowess – combined with a home defence that's conceded in 50% of recent games – we're expecting another high-event contest. The Poisson goal expectancy model inputs suggest 3.00 total expected goals (1.93 home, 1.07 away), which implies approximately 62% probability for over 2.5 goals. At current odds of 1.75, this represents clear value with an estimated edge of over 5%. Gorica's defensive solidity (50% clean sheet rate in last 10) has largely come against weaker opposition than this Dinamo juggernaut, which has put four past Varazdin (who average 1.90 points per game) just last week. **Key Points:** - Dinamo Zagreb have scored 11 goals in their last 3 competitive home matches (4-0, 3-1, 4-1) - Goal expectancies suggest 3.00 total goals expected, well above the 2.5 line - HNK Gorica have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games (0-2, 0-3, 0-1, 1-1) - Dinamo average 18.00 shots per game at home with 2.60 goals scored per game - Over 2.5 goals has landed in 5 of the last 9 H2H meetings - Current odds of 1.75 imply 57% probability; our model suggests 62%+ **Summary:** While Dinamo should cruise to victory, the 1.33 on offer is insulting to any value hunter. The real money lies in the goal markets. Dinamo's attacking metrics are elite-level domestically, and Gorica's away struggles – particularly in front of goal – suggest the visitors won't be able to park the bus effectively. With the hosts averaging nearly four goals per game across their last three home outings and the xG data pointing to three goals expected, the over 2.5 line at 1.75 represents excellent value. **Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.75.**