The Croatian HNL delivers another classic clash as fourth-placed HNK Rijeka (42 points) host second-placed HNK Hajduk Split (60 points). With the season well underway, the immediate form and statistical signals point toward a high-scoring encounter. Rijeka’s recent trajectory has been inconsistent. Over their last 10 matches, they have secured 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, averaging just 1.10 points per game. Their attack has struggled, managing only 0.90 goals per game overall, with home fixtures yielding just 0.75 goals scored per match. Defensively, they have conceded 1.40 goals per game across the last 10, and 1.50 per game at home. Conversely, Hajduk Split arrives in markedly better form. Their last 10 games feature 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, generating 1.70 points per game. Crucially, their away attack has been lethal, scoring 2.80 goals per game on the road while conceding 1.40. Head-to-head history strongly supports a goals market. In their last 10 meetings, the average total goals per match sits at exactly 3.00. Seven of those ten clashes produced Over 2.5 goals. Rijeka actually holds a strong home record against Hajduk, winning 4 of the last 5 home meetings, but the sheer volume of chances created by both sides makes match outcome prediction risky. Instead, the data screams goals. Statistically, both teams dominate possession and generate high shot volumes. Rijeka averages 22.67 shots and 6.00 shots on target at home, controlling 64.7% possession. Hajduk away averages 17.50 shots, 7.00 on target, and 61.3% possession. This high-volume, high-accuracy environment naturally breeds goals. The Poisson goal expectancy model projects 1.07 expected goals for Rijeka and 2.15 for Hajduk, summing to a total of 3.22 expected goals. At odds of 2.05, the bookmaker implies a 48.8% chance of Over 2.5 goals. The mathematical expectancy indicates a true probability of roughly 62.2%, delivering a comfortable 13.4% edge. This comfortably clears the 6% value threshold. Key Points: - HNK Hajduk Split’s away attack averages 2.80 goals per game, while HNK Rijeka’s home defense concedes 1.50 goals per game. - The last 10 head-to-head matches averaged exactly 3.00 total goals, with 70% finishing Over 2.5. - Poisson goal expectancy totals 3.22, creating a >13% mathematical edge on the Over 2.5 Goals market at 2.05 odds. - Both teams average high shot volumes (Rijeka 22.67 home shots, Hajduk 17.50 away shots) and high possession (64.7% vs 61.3%), indicating a fluid, attacking matchup. - Confidence rating: 7/10, meeting the minimum threshold for a value bet. Given the strong goal expectancy, historical scoring trends, and the clear statistical edge, the smart money targets the goals market. Our recommended pick for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals.