This bottom-of-the-table clash pits League Two's basement side Newport County against 17th-placed Barrow, and the data points firmly toward a low-scoring encounter. Newport's home form has been nothing short of disastrous - they've managed just one goal in their last five home matches and are winless at Rodney Parade in their last five attempts, conceding 1.8 goals per game on their own patch. The statistics paint a grim picture for Newport's attacking prospects. They're averaging just 0.6 goals scored per game at home this season, and recent results show the extent of their struggles: 0-1 vs Exeter, 2-4 vs Walsall, 1-1 vs Gillingham, 0-2 vs Cheltenham, and 0-1 vs Swindon Town. That's four clean sheets against them in five home games - a testament to their toothless attack. Barrow, while not setting the world alight, have been much more solid on their travels. They've won 50% of their last four away games and are conceding just 0.75 goals per game away from home. Their recent away form includes an impressive 2-1 victory at league leaders Walsall, showing they can compete on the road. The head-to-head record slightly favors Barrow (5 wins to 3), though Newport did win the last meeting 1-0. However, that was in February, and Newport's form has deteriorated significantly since then. Looking at the goal expectancy data (Home 0.68, Away 1.52) and considering Newport's chronic home scoring issues combined with Barrow's competent away defense, everything points toward under 2.5 goals. Newport have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home games, while Barrow have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 matches overall. Key Points: - Newport have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 home games - Barrow concede only 0.75 goals per game away from home - Newport's home win rate is 0% in last 5 home matches - 4 of Newport's last 5 home games have seen under 2.5 goals - Barrow have kept 40% clean sheets in their last 10 games Given the statistical evidence, particularly Newport's abysmal home scoring record and Barrow's solid away defensive record, under 2.5 goals represents excellent value at 1.75.