The League Two basement battle sees rock-bottom Newport County host a Fleetwood Town side sitting comfortably in mid-table. On paper, this looks like a classic mismatch, and the data strongly suggests goals are on the menu. Newport's season has been one of struggle, rooted to the foot of the table with just 13 points from 19 games. Their recent form makes for grim reading, with just one win in their last ten outings—a 3-0 victory at lowly Harrogate Town. More concerning for their supporters is their home form, where they are winless in their last five, conceding a worrying two goals per game on average. Recent heavy defeats, including a 3-0 loss to Boreham Wood in the FA Cup and a 4-2 home thrashing by league leaders Walsall, highlight a defence that is consistently breached. They did show some fight in a 2-2 draw with Crewe last time out, but the underlying trend is one of vulnerability. Fleetwood Town arrive in a far more positive mood. With four wins and four draws from their last ten, they are a side capable of scoring goals, averaging 1.9 per game over that period. Their away form is patchy with two losses in four, but they have found the net in every one of those trips, including putting three past Tranmere and Port Vale. Their matches are rarely dull, with both teams scoring in a staggering 90% of their last ten games. This attacking intent was on show in their last league away day, a narrow 2-1 defeat at high-flying Milton Keynes Dons. The head-to-head record offers Newport little comfort, with Fleetwood unbeaten in four previous meetings, winning two and drawing two. The most recent clash in April 2025 ended in a 2-0 victory for Fleetwood. When we crunch the numbers, the case for goals is overwhelming. Newport concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game at home. Fleetwood scores an average of 2.0 goals per game on the road. Simple arithmetic points to a high-scoring affair. The goal expectancy model provided suggests a combined total of around 3.38 goals, which significantly exceeds the 2.5 line. With Fleetwood's games consistently featuring goals at both ends and Newport's defence looking porous, backing Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.85 represents clear value. **Key Points:** * Newport County are in dire form, winless in five at home and conceding 2.0 goals per game on average. * Fleetwood Town are potent in attack, averaging 1.9 goals per game over their last ten. * Fleetwood's matches see both teams score 90% of the time, indicating open, end-to-end contests. * The head-to-head history is dominated by Fleetwood (2 wins, 2 draws). * Statistical averages point to a combined goal expectation well above 2.5. **Summary:** While an away win for Fleetwood is a distinct possibility, the smarter betting angle lies in the goal market. Newport's defensive frailties at home are likely to be exposed by a Fleetwood side that scores freely. All indicators point towards a game with at least three goals, making Over 2.5 Goals the standout value bet.