League Two's 21st-placed Crawley Town host promotion-chasing Notts County in a match that pits the division's worst defensive record against one of its more resilient travellers. With Crawley desperate for points and Notts County looking to solidify their top-eight position, this fixture promises intrigue, especially given the historical tendency for both teams to find the net. Crawley Town's form makes for grim reading. They haven't won in their last ten outings, picking up just four points from a possible thirty. Their recent 3-0 defeat to Cheltenham and 2-1 loss to Barnet highlight their struggles, though they've shown a flicker of fight at home with three draws in their last four at Broadfield Stadium, including a 1-1 stalemate with Colchester and a 2-2 thriller against Oldham. The underlying numbers are alarming: they've conceded 22 goals in those ten games, failing to keep a single clean sheet. However, they have scored in eight of those ten matches, proving they can trouble the scoreboard even in defeat. Their high average possession (57.1%) suggests they see plenty of the ball, but with a leaky defence conceding 2.20 goals per game, it's a flawed strategy. Notts County arrive sitting comfortably in 8th, but their recent form has been patchy with three wins, four draws, and three losses from their last ten. A concerning 0-1 home defeat to Accrington ST and a 0-2 loss at Chesterfield show they are fallible. However, their away performances tell a different story. In their last five on the road, they've secured two wins and two draws, conceding just 0.60 goals per game. Victories like the 2-0 win at Grimsby and a 1-0 triumph at Bristol Rovers demonstrate their ability to grind out results away from home. Their issue has been scoring, managing only 0.80 goals per game on their travels, but they face a Crawley defence that is there for the taking. The head-to-head history screams goals and both teams scoring. In the nine meetings between these sides, both teams have found the net in seven, and over 2.5 goals has landed in seven as well. The most recent encounter was a demolition job, with Notts County running out 4-0 winners back in September 2025. While that suggests one-way traffic, the broader pattern indicates these matches are rarely dull, defensive affairs. From a betting perspective, the market offers Notts County at 2.25, which is tempting given the gulf in league positions. However, Crawley's ability to draw games at home and Notts County's modest away scoring rate gives me pause. The Over 2.5 goals market at 1.85 also has merit, driven by Crawley's involvement in high-scoring games. Yet, the standout value for me lies in **Both Teams to Score - Yes** at 1.67. The statistics align perfectly. Crawley's last ten games have seen both teams score 80% of the time. They score (1.20 per game) but concede prolifically (2.20 per game). Notts County, while defensively sound away, have the attacking quality to breach this fragile backline. The historical precedent is overwhelmingly in favour of goals at both ends. Given the fair probability for BTTS Yes is around 56% according to the market, and I assess the true likelihood to be closer to 63%, there is clear positive expected value here. **Key Points:** * Crawley Town are winless in ten, with no clean sheets in that run. * Notts County are strong defensively away, conceding only 0.60 goals per game in their last five road trips. * Head-to-head history shows both teams scoring in 7 of the last 9 meetings (78%). * Crawley's games average 3.40 total goals, the highest combined figure of any team in this analysis. * Notts County have kept clean sheets in 40% of their last ten games, but face a Crawley side that scores in most matches. **Summary:** While Notts County are the better side and should avoid defeat, Crawley's desperate need for points and their habit of scoring and conceding at home makes a clean sheet for the visitors unlikely. The data points strongly towards both teams finding the net, offering the best combination of probability and value on the board. I'm backing goals at both ends. **Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score - Yes**