Fleetwood Town welcome basement-dwelling Newport County to Highbury Stadium on Saturday, and the data points firmly toward a home victory that could kickstart a climb up the League Two table. While the Cod Army sit in 14th place with 44 points from 32 games, their recent trajectory suggests a side finding form at exactly the right moment. The hosts have taken seven points from their last nine available, including an impressive 1-0 away win at playoff-chasing Crewe and a thrilling 3-2 victory over Barrow last time out. That 3-2 win against Barrow was particularly telling—Fleetwood demonstrated resilience and attacking intent despite defensive vulnerabilities. Their home record of late looks patchy on paper (25% win rate from the last four), but context is crucial: those three defeats came against the division's elite in Bromley (1st), Notts County (4th), and Cambridge United (2nd). Against bottom-half opposition like Newport, Fleetwood have delivered, and their 1.50 goals-per-game average at home should trouble a visiting defence leaking 2.00 goals per game on the road. Newport County arrive rooted to the bottom of the table with just 24 points from 33 matches. Their away form makes for grim reading—five defeats from their last six road trips, conceding 2.00 goals per game while scoring just 1.00. While they did spring a surprise 3-1 win at Salford City in mid-February, that result stands as an outlier amid a sea of struggles. Their last away day saw a 2-0 defeat at Cambridge United, and they've failed to score in three of their last six away fixtures. The head-to-head record heavily favors Fleetwood. The Cod Army are unbeaten in five meetings with Newport (3 wins, 2 draws) and boast a 100% home win rate against the Exiles, including a comfortable 2-0 victory when the sides met in December. Fleetwood have kept four clean sheets across those five encounters, conceding just once in total—a defensive solidity that contrasts sharply with their recent individual game trends but speaks to a psychological edge in this specific matchup. Statistically, Fleetwood dominate the key metrics. They average 11.20 shots per game compared to Newport's 8.20, and enjoy superior possession (51.8% vs 46.1%). The goal expectancies support a home win scenario with a projected 1.75-1.50 scoreline favoring Fleetwood. **Key Points:** - Fleetwood unbeaten in last 5 vs Newport (3W-2D) with 100% home win rate - Newport lost 5 of last 6 away games (83% loss rate) and sit bottom of League Two - Fleetwood have taken 7 points from last 9 available, showing upward momentum (RSI 80) - Fleetwood's recent home defeats came exclusively against top-4 opposition (Bromley, Notts County, Cambridge) - Newport have conceded 2.00 goals per game away from home in their last 10 matches **Summary:** Despite the short odds, Fleetwood represent solid betting value at 1.67. The gulf in league position, combined with Fleetwood's improving form and dominant historical record against Newport, makes the home win the clear selection. Newport's atrocious away record and inability to keep clean sheets should see Fleetwood maintain their perfect home H2H record.