Shrewsbury are set to host Oldham in a crucial League Two fixture on April 11, 2026. The current league table shows a significant gap in performance levels. Oldham sit in 9th place with 65 points from 41 games, while Shrewsbury are down in 18th with 44 points from 42 games. This points gap reflects the stark contrast in recent form. Looking at the last 10 games, Oldham have been exceptional, winning 7 matches, drawing 2, and losing just 1. This gives them a win rate of 70% and an average of 2.30 points per game. They have scored 18 goals and conceded only 5, maintaining a 60% clean sheet rate. In contrast, Shrewsbury have won only 4 of their last 10, drawing 0 and losing 6. Their points per game average is 1.20, with a goal difference of -5. Venue performance highlights the disparity further. Shrewsbury's home form has been poor, with a 25% win rate in their last 4 home games. They average just 0.50 goals scored at home but concede 2.00 goals per game. Oldham, however, are strong on the road. In their last 5 away games, they have won 3, drawn 1, and lost 1 (60% win rate). They average 2.00 goals scored per game away and concede just 0.80. Head-to-head history suggests Shrewsbury traditionally dominate this fixture, winning 80% of home meetings. However, betting decisions should prioritize current form over historical data. The last meeting ended 2-2, but Oldham's defensive structure (0.50 goals conceded per game in last 10) looks far more robust than Shrewsbury's leaky home defense. Goal expectancy analysis supports an Oldham victory. The model predicts Oldham will score 2.00 goals while Shrewsbury is expected to score 0.65. This aligns with the recent results where Oldham secured wins against Notts County (3-0) and Grimsby (3-0). Shrewsbury's recent home losses include heavy defeats, such as 0-4 against Crewe and 0-2 against Cheltenham. The betting odds for an Oldham win are 2.10. This implies a probability of roughly 47.6%. Given Oldham's 70% win rate in their last 10 games and Shrewsbury's struggles, the true probability appears significantly higher, creating value. Shrewsbury's 20% clean sheet rate compared to Oldham's 60% further supports the visitors. Key Points: - Oldham have a 70% win rate in their last 10 games. - Shrewsbury have a 25% win rate in their last 4 home games. - Oldham average 2.00 goals per game away. - Shrewsbury average 2.00 goals conceded per game at home. - Oldham's clean sheet rate is 60% in last 10 games. Based on the form disparity and goal expectancy, the recommendation is an Oldham Away Win.