Blackburn look to extend their mini-revival when they host Bristol City at Ewood Park on Tuesday night. The hosts have climbed off the bottom with back-to-back victories, while the visitors arrive with patchy away form that makes the 2.30 on a home win look distinctly appealing. **Blackburn's Home Comforts** Sitting in 20th place with 38 points from 33 games, Blackburn have found some much-needed momentum. Their 1-0 win against Preston on February 20th followed a convincing 3-1 victory at QPR, marking their first back-to-back wins in some time. The underlying data supports this upturn – their trends show positive momentum with improving goal-scoring and points accumulation. At home, Blackburn have been solid if unspectacular, winning 40% of their last five home fixtures while conceding just 0.80 goals per game. They've kept three clean sheets in their last ten outings overall and their defensive organisation has tightened considerably. With an average of 1.00 goals scored per home game and 11.00 shots per match at Ewood Park, they generate enough pressure to trouble mid-table sides. **Bristol City's Away Day Blues** Bristol City occupy 12th spot with 47 points, but their away form tells a worrying story. They've won just 25% of their last four away games, scoring a meagre 0.75 goals per game on the road compared to 2.33 at home. Their shot accuracy drops from 40.2% overall to just 31.4% away from Ashton Gate, while their possession falls to 47.5%. The Robins lost 1-0 at Swansea last time out and have managed just one win in their last four away trips. While they did secure an impressive 3-2 victory at Hull City (who boast a strong 2.10 points-per-game recent record), that appears the exception rather than the rule. Their 0-5 home thrashing by Derby in late January also exposed defensive vulnerabilities that Blackburn can exploit. **Head-to-Head and Tactical Matchup** The historical record favours Blackburn at home, where they hold a 50% win rate against Bristol City (2 wins, 2 losses from 4 matches). The most recent encounter in November 2025 ended 1-0 to Blackburn, and with goal expectancies set at 1.12 for the hosts versus 0.78 for the visitors, another tight contest looms. Bristol City's +0.75 finishing delta suggests they've been overperforming in front of goal – a trend that typically regresses. Meanwhile, Blackburn's improving defensive trends (conceding just 0.80 per game at home) align well against Bristol City's struggling away attack. **Key Points:** - Blackburn have won their last two matches (1-0 vs Preston, 3-1 at QPR) and show improving statistical trends - Bristol City score just 0.75 goals per game away from home with only 25% win rate on the road - Blackburn concede only 0.80 goals per game at home with a 40% win rate - Goal expectancies suggest a low-scoring affair (1.12 vs 0.78) - Blackburn hold a 50% home win rate against Bristol City in recent head-to-heads **Summary:** The 2.30 available on a Blackburn home win represents solid value. Bristol City's alarming away attacking metrics (0.75 goals per game, declining shot accuracy) clash with Blackburn's improving home defence and momentum. With the hosts trending upwards and the visitors struggling to replicate their home form on the road, back Blackburn to make it three wins on the spin.