The League One Boxing Day fixture at Edgeley Park pits a Stockport County side struggling for home form against a Lincoln City team sitting pretty in second place. On paper, this looks like a straightforward away win, but the data reveals a more complex picture that points squarely towards goals. Stockport's league position of fifth, just three points behind Lincoln with a game in hand, belies a worrying recent trend at home. Their last ten matches show just two wins, with a meagre 20% win rate and only eight goals scored. More concerning is their home record: zero wins from their last five at Edgeley Park, with three draws and two heavy defeats. The 1-3 loss to Stevenage and the 0-3 defeat to Luton highlight defensive frailties, conceding an average of 1.60 goals per game on their own turf. Their sole recent home victory in any competition was a 2-1 FA Cup win over Mansfield, a side languishing near the bottom of the form table. Lincoln arrive as the division's second-placed side, but their travels have been inconsistent. They boast a strong 50% win rate over their last ten, including impressive victories over league leaders Cardiff (2-1) and Barnsley (3-1). However, their away form tells a different story: just one win in their last five on the road, with a 20% win rate and a leaky defence conceding 1.80 goals per game. Their recent away trips have been goal-laden affairs: a 2-2 draw at Blackpool, a 3-2 loss at Wycombe, and a 3-0 defeat at Rotherham. The head-to-head history heavily favours Stockport, especially at home, where they have a perfect 3-0-0 record against Lincoln. The most recent meeting in April 2025 was a 3-2 thriller, continuing a trend of high-scoring encounters; four of the last six clashes have seen over 2.5 goals. This match sets up perfectly for an open, end-to-end contest. Stockport, despite their poor results, are creating chances at home (averaging 11.75 shots) but are woefully inefficient in front of goal (only 3.50 on target). Lincoln, while potent going forward away from home (1.40 goals per game), have shown they can be got at defensively. The underlying numbers suggest both teams have the attacking intent to score, but neither possesses the defensive solidity to keep a clean sheet reliably. **Key Points:** * **Form Dissonance:** Lincoln are 2nd but have won just 20% of recent away games. Stockport are 5th but have won 0% of recent home games. * **Goal Trends:** 3 of Lincoln's last 4 away games featured Over 2.5 Goals. 4 of the last 6 H2H meetings also went Over 2.5. * **Defensive Vulnerabilities:** Stockport concede 1.60 goals per game at home. Lincoln concede 1.80 goals per game away. * **Attacking Data:** Lincoln average 1.50 goals per game over their last ten. Stockport's attack is improving, scoring 1.67 goals on average in their last three. * **Historical Edge:** Stockport have a 100% home win rate against Lincoln, but current form massively contradicts this. **Summary & Betting Verdict:** All signs point towards a game with goals. Stockport's desperate need for a home result should see them attack, while Lincoln's quality and league position will give them confidence to play their game. With both sides demonstrating defensive issues and a history of high-scoring matches between them, the value bet lies in backing **Over 2.5 Goals** at attractive odds of 2.10. The probability of this landing is significantly higher than the implied odds suggest, making it the standout value selection.