The New Year's Day clash at Vale Park pits the league's bottom side, Port Vale, against a Blackpool team looking to climb away from danger. On paper, this looks like a straightforward away win given the 11-point gap in the standings, but the data tells a more nuanced story, especially when you dig into the home and away trends. Port Vale's league position is dire – rock bottom with just 15 points from 21 games. Their recent form makes for grim reading, with no wins in their last five league outings and a demoralising 5-0 thumping away at Huddersfield just three days ago. However, a deeper look reveals a curious Jekyll and Hyde character, particularly at home. In their last six games at Vale Park, they've conceded a miserly 0.33 goals per game. This includes a 0-0 draw with a solid Bradford side and a 0-1 loss to Peterborough. The problem is at the other end; they've scored just 0.80 goals per game on average over their last ten, failing to find the net in three of their last four league matches. Blackpool arrive in better spirits. They sit 19th but have collected 7 points from their last 4 league games, including impressive away wins at Wigan (2-0) and Rotherham (3-0). They average a healthy 1.60 goals per game on their travels. Their recent 1-0 home win over Doncaster continued the positive momentum. The head-to-head record, however, should give them pause. Port Vale have won the last two meetings, including a 1-0 victory earlier this season in August. **Key Points:** * **Port Vale's Home Defence:** Incredibly tight, conceding only 0.33 goals per game in their last 6 home matches. * **Port Vale's Attack:** Struggling severely, with 0 goals in their last 3 league games. * **Blackpool's Away Form:** Strong recently, with 5 goals scored in their last 2 away league wins. * **Head-to-Head:** Port Vale have a dominant 4-2-1 record and won the reverse fixture 1-0. * **Goal Expectancy:** The market's Poisson model suggests an expectation of just over 2.0 total goals. For bettors, the value appears to lie not in the match outcome, which is tricky to call, but in the goal markets. Port Vale's home games are consistently low-scoring affairs, and their inability to score suggests 'Both Teams To Score - No' is a compelling proposition. At odds of 1.95, this offers significant value against a Blackpool side that, while scoring, faces a stubborn home defence and who kept a clean sheet in their last outing. **Summary:** This has the makings of a tense, scrappy affair. Port Vale will likely set up to be hard to beat at home, while Blackpool will be confident after recent results. However, the data strongly points towards at least one team failing to score. Given Port Vale's toothless attack and resilient home back line, the smart play is backing **Both Teams To Score - No** at attractive odds.