League One action sees Burton Albion host Stevenage on Saturday, with the Pirelli Stadium faithful hoping their side can take advantage of some truly dreadful away form from the visitors. While the table shows Stevenage in 9th place on 51 points and Burton down in 17th with 40, the current trajectory and venue splits tell a very different story. Burton have turned their home ground into a fortress of late, going unbeaten in their last three matches at the Pirelli with victories over Stockport County (3-0) and Rotherham (1-0) either side of a hard-fought 2-2 draw against league leaders Cardiff. That result against Cardiff on January 31st was particularly impressive, showing Burton can mix it with the division's best on their own patch. Their home defensive record is solid, conceding just 0.80 goals per game across the last five at home, and they've kept three clean sheets in their last ten overall. Stevenage, meanwhile, are suffering from a severe case of travel sickness. Their last four away matches have ended in defeat with a staggering 12 goals conceded (exactly three in each game) against Wycombe (3-1), Northampton (3-1), Barnsley (3-1), and Exeter (3-0). That's three goals shipped per game to teams ranging from mid-table to relegation candidates. Their away attacking output is equally concerning, managing just 0.75 goals per game on the road with a shot accuracy dropping to 26.8% away from home compared to 50.3% at home. The head-to-head record slightly favours Stevenage historically (3 wins to Burton's 2), and Burton have never beaten Stevenage at home in four attempts (0-2-2). However, current form trumps historical data, and Stevenage's away defensive frailties are impossible to ignore. The goal expectancy models point heavily towards a Burton advantage (2.20 expected goals vs 0.78), reflecting the stark contrast between Burton's home solidity and Stevenage's away chaos. **Key Points:** - Stevenage have lost their last 4 away games, conceding exactly 3 goals in each (12 total) - Burton are unbeaten in their last 3 home matches, including a 3-0 win over 5th-placed Stockport - Stevenage score just 0.75 goals per game away from home with a 0% win rate on the road recently - Burton have conceded only 0.80 goals per game at home in their last 5 home fixtures - The 2.80 available on the home win represents value given the venue-specific form **Summary:** Stevenage's away form is genuinely terrible right now, and Burton have shown they can punish teams at home. The 2.80 on a Burton win is generous given the circumstances - back the Brewers to take all three points.