The Bundesliga's Sunday afternoon fixture sees tenth-placed Union Berlin host relegation-threatened Werder Bremen in a match that looks heavily weighted towards the home side. With Bremen winless on the road and struggling for goals, the value lies with Union at 2.20. Union Berlin come into this clash with respectable recent form, picking up 1.00 points per game across their last ten matches. While their 2-4-4 record might not scream dominance, the context reveals a side competitive against the league's best. They secured a statement 1-0 victory against Bayer Leverkusen (who were averaging 1.90 points per game at the time) and earned hard-fought draws against high-flying Stuttgart (1-1) and Eintracht Frankfurt (1-1). Their home record shows 25% wins with a solid defensive base, conceding 1.50 goals per game while scoring 1.00. Werder Bremen, languishing in 16th place with just 22 points, arrive in desperate need of points but showing little sign of finding them. Their away form is particularly alarming: zero wins in their last five road trips, scoring a paltry 0.20 goals per game while conceding 1.40. Across their last ten matches, they've managed just one victory—a 2-0 home win against bottom-placed Heidenheim—and have been shut out in four of those fixtures, including heavy 0-3 defeats to both Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund. The head-to-head history heavily favours the hosts. Union boast a 75% win rate at home against Bremen (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), and the goal expectancies back up the narrative of home dominance with Union projected at 1.20 goals to Bremen's 0.85. Bremen's shot statistics reveal the root of their problems: despite averaging 15.00 shots per game, they're converting at just 29.7% accuracy and have a finishing delta of -0.59, indicating they're significantly underperforming their expected goals. **Key Points:** • Union Berlin have won 75% of home meetings against Werder Bremen historically • Werder Bremen have 0% win rate away from home in last 5 matches, scoring just 0.20 goals per game • Union beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 in their last home outing, showing capability against quality opposition • Bremen's only win in last 10 came against bottom-placed Heidenheim (2-0) • Goal expectancies: Union 1.20, Bremen 0.85 (total 2.05) • Union averaging 1.00 goals per game at home vs Bremen's 0.20 away **Summary:** The disparity in home and away form is stark. Union's solid defensive record at home, combined with Bremen's inability to score on the road, makes the home win at 2.20 excellent value. With Bremen managing just one goal in their last five away trips and Union showing they can grind results against top-half sides, back Union Berlin to take all three points.