Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln clash in the Bundesliga on May 2, 2026. Both sides are battling in the lower half of the table, with Union Berlin sitting 13th on 32 points and Köln in 14th on 31 points. The stakes are high as both teams fight to avoid the relegation zone. Union Berlin's recent form has been challenging. Over their last 10 matches, they have secured just 2 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, averaging 0.70 points per game. Their attack has struggled, managing only 0.90 goals per game, while their defense has been porous, conceding 2.10 goals per game. At home, Union Berlin averages 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded. Their goals conceded trend is declining, but their points trend is also declining. 1. FC Köln arrives with a slightly better recent record, posting 1 win, 5 draws, and 4 losses in their last 10 fixtures. They average 0.80 points per game. Offensively, they are more productive, averaging 1.50 goals per game, but their defense remains vulnerable, conceding 1.90 goals per game. On the road, Köln averages 1.00 goal scored and 1.80 goals conceded. Notably, Köln has not kept a single clean sheet in their last 10 matches, resulting in a 0.00% clean sheet rate. Head-to-head history favors the home side. In the last 10 meetings, Union Berlin has won 6 times, with 2 draws and 2 losses. Specifically at home, Union Berlin holds a 3-1-0 record against Köln. The last meeting on December 20, 2025, ended 1-0 to Union Berlin. Goal expectancy models project 1.40 goals for the home side and 1.38 for the visitors, totaling 2.78 expected goals. This aligns with the high frequency of goals in their past encounters, where 5 out of 10 H2H matches saw over 2.5 goals. Given the statistical profile, the most compelling angle is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Union Berlin has seen both teams score in 60% of their last 10 games, while Köln has seen it happen in 90% of theirs. With both defenses leaking goals (Union conceding 1.75 at home, Köln conceding 1.80 away) and both attacks capable of finding the net, the market price of 1.67 offers a clear edge. The implied probability is roughly 60%, but the combined team trends suggest a fair probability closer to 75%, providing a solid value play that meets our minimum edge threshold. Key Points: - Union Berlin: 2W-1D-7L in last 10; 0.90 goals/game, 2.10 conceded/game. - 1. FC Köln: 1W-5D-4L in last 10; 1.50 goals/game, 1.90 conceded/game. - H2H: Union Berlin leads 6-2-2 overall; 3-1-0 at home. - Goal Expectancy: 2.78 total goals projected. - BTTS Trend: Union 60%, Köln 90% in last 10 matches. - Value Bet: Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.67. Final Recommendation: Back Both Teams to Score - Yes.