Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Veres Rivne looking to keep pace with league leaders LNZ Cherkasy, and the data points firmly toward a comfortable home victory. The Miners sit second in the Premier League with 38 points from 17 games, boasting an impressive +33 goal difference that dwarfs Veres' -3 return. Recent form heavily favours the hosts. Shakhtar have taken 19 points from their last 10 matches (1.90 PPG), scoring 22 goals at an average of 2.20 per game while conceding just 0.70. Their home record is particularly formidable, averaging 2.50 goals per game with a 50% win rate and only 0.88 goals conceded. The 3-0 dismantling of Karpaty last time out showcased their attacking potency, while earlier league wins include a 5-0 thrashing of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Veres Rivne arrive in 9th place with just one win from their last 10 outings (0.90 PPG). While they've shown resilience with six draws in that sequence, their away form is concerning. They've failed to win on the road in their last two away games, scoring just 0.50 goals per game away from home while conceding 2.00. Their 0-3 defeat at Dynamo Kyiv in mid-December highlighted their struggles against top-tier opposition, and they managed just one goal in their two most recent away fixtures combined. The head-to-head record is damning for Veres. Shakhtar have won six of eight meetings with two draws, meaning Veres are still searching for their first victory in this fixture. Crucially, Shakhtar boast a 100% home win rate against Veres (3-0-0), winning by aggregate scorelines that suggest complete control. Tactically, Shakhtar's dominance is reflected in their 62.5% average possession and 52.8% shot accuracy. They generate 13.5 shots per game with 7 on target, while Veres' away attacking data shows minimal threat creation. With goal expectancies of 2.25 for Shakhtar versus just 0.69 for Veres, the mathematical model aligns perfectly with the historical trend. **Key Points:** - Shakhtar have never lost to Veres in 8 meetings (6W-2D-0L) - Perfect 100% home win record for Shakhtar in this fixture (3 wins from 3) - Shakhtar averaging 2.50 goals per game at home; Veres conceding 2.00 per game away - Veres failed to score in 50% of their last 10 matches - Shakhtar's 60% clean sheet rate vs Veres' 30% scoring rate suggests low chance of away goals **Summary:** While the 1.36 odds on the home win appear short, the underlying statistics justify the price. Shakhtar's historical dominance, superior quality, and Veres' impotence away from home create a compelling case for value. The expected value sits around +6% based on a 78% true probability, making this a solid banker for singles or accumulators.