AD Ceuta FC welcome Cordoba to their home ground sitting 10th in the Segunda División with 38 points from 26 games, while the visitors occupy 8th spot with 41 points and a game in hand. While the table suggests a tight mid-table clash, the underlying data and historical trends point toward clear value in the away side. The hosts enter this fixture on the back of a 2-1 victory over Granada CF, their fourth win in ten outings. Ceuta have been formidable on home soil recently, winning 60% of their last five home fixtures and averaging 1.60 goals per game. However, their defensive vulnerabilities are glaring—over the last ten games, they've conceded 17 goals at 1.70 per match and kept zero clean sheets. Notably, their 4-2 defeat at Almeria came against a side averaging just 0.80 points per game in that stretch, while their 3-0 home loss to Valladolid (0.90 PPG) exposed fragility against beatable opposition. Cordoba arrive with superior momentum, having taken 20 points from their last ten matches (2.00 PPG). Their defensive solidity stands out—conceding just 0.80 goals per game with three clean sheets in that period. Their away form is particularly impressive with a 60% win rate in their last five road trips, scoring 1.40 per game while conceding just 1.00. Their recent 2-1 victory at Las Palmas (who averaged 1.80 PPG) demonstrates their ability to beat in-form sides, while their narrow 1-2 loss at Almeria (1.60 PPG) shows competitiveness against strong opposition. The head-to-head record heavily favors Cordoba. In seven previous meetings, they remain unbeaten against Ceuta with three wins and four draws. Crucially, Ceuta have never beaten Cordoba at home (0-2-1 record), and the reverse fixture in November ended in a comfortable 2-0 victory for the visitors. That psychological barrier, combined with Cordoba's statistical superiority—averaging 60% possession, 15.30 shots per game, and 82.9% pass accuracy compared to Ceuta's 49.4% possession and 12.70 shots—creates a compelling case for the away win. **Key Points:** - Cordoba are unbeaten in all 7 previous meetings with Ceuta (3 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses) - Ceuta have kept 0 clean sheets in their last 10 games, conceding 1.70 goals per game on average - Cordoba have won 6 of their last 10 matches and boast a 60% away win rate in recent fixtures - The reverse fixture in November 2025 ended 2-0 to Cordoba - Cordoba concede just 0.80 goals per game over the last 10, compared to Ceuta's 1.70 - Cordoba's 2-1 away win at Las Palmas (1.80 PPG form) shows they can beat strong opposition **Summary:** Despite Ceuta's impressive 60% home win rate and their recent 2-1 success against Granada, the historical dominance of Cordoba in this fixture is impossible to ignore. With Ceuta yet to register a single victory over Cordoba in seven attempts, and with the visitors showing superior defensive solidity (0.80 goals conceded per game) and better recent form (2.00 PPG), the value lies with the away side. At odds of 2.75, Cordoba represent a solid betting proposition to extend their unbeaten run against Ceuta and strengthen their push for the upper reaches of the table.