Huesca welcome basement-dwelling Mirandes to El Alcoraz this Saturday in a crucial Segunda División relegation six-pointer that looks heavily weighted towards the hosts. While both sides occupy the lower reaches of the table, the nine-point gap between 17th-placed Huesca and the bottom-placed visitors tells its own story, and the home side's dominant historical record against this opponent only strengthens their case. Huesca arrive off the back of a solid 2-0 victory over AD Ceuta FC, a result that snapped a concerning three-game winless streak that included a damaging 4-1 reverse at league leaders Castellón. That clean sheet against Ceuta was particularly welcome given their defensive struggles in recent weeks, and it marked their third shutout in ten matches. Their home form provides the foundation for confidence here – they've lost just once in their last five at El Alcoraz (W2 D2 L1), conceding a miserly 0.80 goals per game on their own patch while averaging 1.20 at the attacking end. The head-to-head record is stark reading for Mirandes supporters. Huesca have lost just once in nine meetings between these sides (W5 D3), boasting a 60% win rate when hosting this fixture. The reverse meeting in August ended 1-0 to Huesca, continuing a trend of tight, controlled victories in this matchup – five of the last six encounters have produced fewer than 2.5 goals, with Huesca keeping six clean sheets across the nine-game sample. Mirandes prop up the table with just 21 points from 26 games, and their away form is a significant contributor to their plight. They remain winless in their last five road trips (D1 L4), scoring a paltry 0.40 goals per game away from home while shipping 1.80 at the other end. Their recent 1-1 draw against playoff-chasing Las Palmas showed they can dig in against superior opposition, and the shock 2-1 home win over sixth-placed Malaga proves they possess upset potential. However, those results came at home – on the road, they've been beaten 3-0 by Sporting Gijón and conceded multiple goals in four of their last five away days. The underlying numbers support a low-scoring home victory. The goal expectancy models point to a 1.50-0.60 split in Huesca's favor, reflecting both the hosts' moderate attacking output and Mirandes' struggles to create chances on their travels (averaging just 2.20 shots on target per away game). Huesca's shot accuracy drops at home (21.9% vs 33.8% away), but against a side conceding chances regularly, they should generate sufficient opportunities. **Key Points:** • Huesca have won five of nine meetings with Mirandes, losing just once, and boast a 60% home win rate in this fixture • Mirandes are bottom of the table with only five wins all season and are winless in their last five away matches (0W-1D-4L) • Huesca have kept three clean sheets in their last ten games and concede just 0.80 goals per game at home • Mirandes average only 0.40 goals per game away from home and have failed to score in three of their last five road trips • Five of the last six H2H meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, with Huesca keeping six clean sheets in nine total meetings **Summary:** This looks a straightforward home win proposition despite Huesca's inconsistent campaign. Mirandes' away record is abysmal, and their inability to score on the road (0.40 goals per game) against a Huesca side that defends resolutely at home (0.80 conceded) points to a comfortable afternoon for the hosts. The 2.05 available on the home win represents solid value given the gulf in home/away profiles and the lopsided head-to-head history. Huesca to take three vital points in a low-scoring affair.