Almeria host Real Sociedad II at the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in what promises to be a fascinating Segunda División encounter. The home side sits comfortably in 2nd place with 55 points, while Real Sociedad II are mid-table at 13th with 40 points, but don't let the table fool you—the visitors arrive in sensational form. Real Sociedad II have been nothing short of exceptional over their last 10 matches, winning 7 of them for a 70% win rate and averaging 2.20 points per game. Their away record in particular has been outstanding, with a perfect 100% win rate from their last five road trips and a remarkable defensive display that has seen them concede just 0.20 goals per game on the road. Almeria, meanwhile, have been solid at home with an 80% win rate from their last five home fixtures. They've scored 2.60 goals per game at their stadium, showing they can open up defenses. Their recent results include a convincing 3-1 away victory at Huesca and a 3-0 home win against Cultural Leonesa. The head-to-head record heavily favors Almeria—they have won 2 of the 3 previous meetings without a single defeat. Notably, 2 of those 3 matches went Over 2.5 Goals, with scorelines of 2-2, 2-0, and 3-1. The most recent encounter in August 2025 ended in a 2-2 draw, suggesting both teams can find the net. The goal expectancy model points to a total of 3.10 expected goals, with Real Sociedad II actually showing the higher individual expectancy at 1.70 compared to Almeria's 1.40. This reflects the visitors' current scoring form and attacking confidence. For bettors, the Over 2.5 Goals market at 1.67 looks particularly attractive. The combination of Almeria's potent home attack, Real Sociedad II's strong away scoring record (2.00 goals per game), and the historical tendency for goals in this fixture all align. The fair probability sits around 56%, making the 1.67 odds (implying 59.9%) decent value. Almeria's home win at 1.57 is tempting given their head-to-head dominance, but Real Sociedad II's blistering away form and 100% win rate on the road makes this a tighter proposition than the odds suggest. The visitors have proven they can handle top opposition on the road, keeping clean sheets against teams like Cadiz and Cordoba. **Key Points:** - Real Sociedad II are in exceptional form with a 70% win rate over their last 10 matches - The visitors have a perfect 100% away win rate from their last five road games - Almeria have won 2 of 3 previous meetings, never losing to Real Sociedad II - Goal expectancy model predicts 3.10 total goals in this fixture - Real Sociedad II have conceded just 0.20 goals per game away from home - Both teams are scoring at high rates—Almeria averaging 1.90 goals per game, Real Sociedad II 1.90 The value here lies in **Over 2.5 Goals** at 1.67. Both teams are in good attacking form, the H2H history supports goals, and the goal expectancy model strongly favors an entertaining, high-scoring affair.