The Segunda División continues its final stretch as fourth-placed Castellón hosts tenth-placed Cordoba on May 2, 2026. Castellón arrives in solid form, sitting on 64 points from 37 matches, while Cordoba trails at 54 points. The home side has been prolific in front of goal, averaging 1.90 goals per game over their last 10 fixtures, with a home scoring rate of 2.00 goals per match. Their defensive record is notably leaky, conceding 2.00 goals per game overall and 1.40 at home. This combination of offensive output and defensive exposure sets the stage for an open contest. Cordoba, meanwhile, has been inconsistent on the road. Their last 10 games yield a 40% win rate away from home, with an average of 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per away match. The head-to-head record heavily favors the visitors, with Cordoba winning four of the last five meetings. In those five clashes, both teams have scored in four matches, and the Over 2.5 Goals line has been crossed in four of them. Recent results highlight this pattern: the last meeting ended 1-2, and previous encounters saw scores like 2-3 and 2-2. Statistical trends strongly point toward a high-scoring affair. Castellón's home matches regularly feature goals at both ends, boasting a 90% Both Teams to Score rate over the last 10 games. Cordoba's away defensive fragility (2.40 goals conceded per game) combined with Castellón's attacking output creates a fertile environment for goals. The Poisson goal expectancy model projects 2.20 goals for the home side and 1.50 for the visitors, totaling 3.70 expected goals. This mathematical projection, paired with the historical head-to-head data and recent form, makes the Over 2.5 Goals market the most compelling option. Key Points: - Castellón averages 2.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded in home matches. - Cordoba concedes 2.40 goals per game in away fixtures. - Four of the last five head-to-head meetings have seen Over 2.5 Goals. - Goal expectancy model predicts a total of 3.70 goals for this fixture. - Market odds for Over 2.5 Goals sit at 1.48, offering positive expected value based on the statistical projection. With both teams showing offensive capability and defensive vulnerabilities, the data strongly supports a high-scoring match. Our recommended bet is Over 2.5 Goals.