The Süper Lig serves up an intriguing mid-table battle as 10th-placed Alanyaspor host 16th-placed Eyüpspor. On paper, this looks like a straightforward home win, but the head-to-head history tells a different story entirely. As a data-driven bettor, I'm diving deep into the numbers to find where the real value lies. Alanyaspor arrive in solid form, losing just once in their last ten outings across all competitions. That solitary defeat was a 2-3 home loss to title-chasing Fenerbahçe, which is hardly a disgrace. More impressively, they've kept six clean sheets in that ten-game stretch, showcasing a defensive resilience that has them conceding a mere 0.7 goals per game on average. Their recent 1-1 draw with Rizespor and a famous 1-0 Turkish Cup win at Trabzonspor highlight their ability to compete with and frustrate stronger sides. At home, they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, presenting a balanced profile. Eyüpspor's form is more erratic. They've won three, drawn four, and lost three of their last ten, but the concerning stat for them is the complete absence of a clean sheet. They've conceded in every single one of those matches, letting in 1.6 goals per game on average. Their away form is particularly vulnerable, shipping 1.75 goals per contest. However, they are not toothless in attack, averaging 1.6 goals scored themselves. Their recent 2-2 home draw with Beşiktaş proves they can find the net against quality opposition, but their 0-3 and 0-3 losses to Fenerbahçe and Rizespor respectively expose their defensive frailties. The head-to-head record is where this fixture gets fascinating. In six previous meetings, Alanyaspor have never beaten Eyüpspor (0 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). The goals have flowed in these encounters, with four of the six matches featuring over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in four as well. Eyüpspor won the most recent clash 2-1 back in August 2025. Remarkably, in three visits to Alanyaspor, Eyüpspor have never lost, securing three draws. From a betting perspective, the market has installed Alanyaspor as strong 1.55 favourites. While their current form and league position justify favouritism, that price offers minimal value given the historical hoodoo Eyüpspor seem to have over them. The draw at 4.29 is more interesting historically but doesn't align with the current trajectory of the teams. The value, in my analysis, lies in the goal markets. Eyüpspor's 'leaky but lively' profile—scoring and conceding regularly—clashes with an Alanyaspor side that scores consistently at home. Alanyaspor's clean sheets have largely come against weaker opposition, and when facing more potent attacks, they have conceded. With Eyüpspor failing to keep a clean sheet in ten games, Alanyaspor should score. The historical data strongly supports a game with goals, and the underlying averages (Alanyaspor 1.6, Eyüpspor 1.6) point to a 3.2 goal expectation. **Key Points:** * Alanyaspor are in strong form (W4 D5 L1 last 10) but have never beaten Eyüpspor (0W, 3D, 3L). * Eyüpspor have conceded in every match for their last ten games, with zero clean sheets. * Four of the six historical H2H meetings saw Over 2.5 goals. * Alanyaspor averages 1.6 goals scored per game; Eyüpspor averages 1.6 scored but concedes 1.6. * The market odds for a home win (1.55) appear fair but don't offer significant betting value. **Summary & Bet:** The historical curse for Alanyaspor and the solid odds make the straight home win a pass for me. However, the combination of Eyüpspor's obliging defense and both teams' attacking output creates a high-probability scenario for goals. With Over 2.5 Goals priced at 2.02, I see clear value backing the net to bulge at least three times.