We head to the Süper Lig for a crucial relegation scrap as 14th-placed Konyaspor host 16th-placed Kasımpaşa this Sunday. With just three points separating these sides from the drop zone, this is a classic six-pointer, but the data strongly suggests only one outcome is likely. **Konyaspor: The Home Fortress** Konyaspor have transformed their home ground into a fortress recently. Over their last four home fixtures, they're unbeaten with a 50% win rate and have conceded a miserly 0.25 goals per game. That defensive solidity was on full display when they stunned league leaders Galatasaray 2-0 on February 21st – a result that proves they can rise to the occasion against elite opposition. They've also held fifth-placed Göztepe to a 0-0 draw and boast four clean sheets in their last ten games overall. Their recent form shows resilience even in defeat – a 2-0 loss at Başakşehir (who average 2.10 points per game) and a narrow 2-1 defeat at Beşiktaş (2.20 PPG) are hardly disgraces against top-six sides. At home, they're averaging 2.00 goals scored while leaking virtually nothing at the back. **Kasımpaşa: Away Day Blues** The visitors arrive in dire away form. Kasımpaşa have lost 75% of their last four road trips, failing to win any of them while conceding 2.00 goals per game and scoring just 0.75. Their away day struggles include defeats at Gaziantep (2-1) and Trabzonspor (2-1), though they did snatch a credible 1-1 draw at second-placed Fenerbahçe. However, that Fenerbahçe result looks like an outlier when you consider they were hammered 3-0 at home by mid-table Rizespor in their most recent outing. When the pressure mounts, Kasımpaşa have shown a tendency to crumble – particularly on their travels where they've failed to score in two of their last four away games. **Head-to-Head History** The historical data heavily favours the hosts. Konyaspor are unbeaten in nine meetings with Kasımpaşa (4 wins, 5 draws) and have never lost to them. While recent H2H clashes have been goal-laden (3-3 and 3-2 scorelines feature), Konyaspor's current defensive setup – conceding just once in their last four home games – suggests this won't follow the same pattern. **The Numbers Game** The goal expectancies paint a clear picture: Home 2.00, Away 0.50. This aligns perfectly with Konyaspor's home attacking output (2.00 goals/game) and Kasımpaşa's anaemic away strike rate (0.75 goals/game). Kasımpaşa's shot data on the road is equally concerning – averaging just 5.00 shots per game away from home with a 26.5% accuracy rate, while Konyaspor dominate possession at home (58.7%). **Key Points:** • Konyaspor are unbeaten in their last 4 home games (2 wins, 2 draws) with a stunning 2-0 victory over Galatasaray • Kasımpaşa have lost 75% of their last 4 away games and are winless on the road • Konyaspor have never lost to Kasımpaşa in 9 meetings (4W-5D-0L) • Goal expectancies suggest a 2.00 vs 0.50 split in favour of the hosts • Konyaspor concede just 0.25 goals per game at home; Kasımpaşa concede 2.00 away **The Verdict** At 2.10, the home win represents excellent value. Konyaspor's defensive record at home is elite-level (0.25 conceded per game), they've just beaten the league leaders, and they face a Kasımpaşa side that can't buy a win away from home. The 0-3 hammering by Rizespor last week exposed Kasımpaşa's fragility, and against a Konyaspor side that knows how to grind out results at home, I expect the hosts to extend their unbeaten H2H record. The implied probability of 47.6% underestimates Konyaspor's true chances – I make it closer to 55% given the form differential and venue advantage. **Recommended Bet:** Konyaspor to win at 2.10