The Süper Lig relegation battle heats up as Fatih Karagümrük host Eyüpspor in a crucial clash at the bottom of the table. Fatih Karagümrük sits in 18th place with 20 points, while Eyüpspor is just above them in 17th with 22 points. Both teams are fighting for survival, but the form guide strongly favors the home side. Fatih Karagümrük has transformed into a formidable home team recently. In their last 4 home games, they have secured a 75% win rate, scoring an average of 1.25 goals per game while conceding only 0.25. This defensive solidity at home contrasts sharply with their away struggles, where they have conceded 1.83 goals per game. Their recent 0-3 loss to Konyaspor was an away fixture, so their home record remains the key metric here. Conversely, Eyüpsor is in dire straits on the road. Their last 4 away games resulted in a 0% win rate, with a dismal 0.25 goals scored per game and a leaky defense conceding 2.25 goals per game. The goal expectancy model supports this disparity, projecting Fatih Karagümrük to score 1.75 goals compared to Eyüpsor's 0.25. This suggests a low-scoring affair where the home team dominates possession and chances. The betting market prices a Fatih Karagümrük win at 2.00, implying a 50% probability. However, given the 75% home win rate and the significant goal expectancy gap, the true probability appears closer to 60%. This creates a value edge of approximately 10%, comfortably exceeding the 6% threshold required for a worthwhile bet. The odds for Under 2.5 goals are also tempting at 1.80, but the home win offers a clearer signal based on the venue analysis. With Fatih Karagümrük needing points to avoid the drop, and Eyüpsor struggling to score away from home, the home win is the logical choice. The data confirms a strong home advantage that the odds do not fully reflect. Key Points: - Fatih Karagümrük has a 75% win rate in their last 4 home games. - Eyüpsor has a 0% win rate in their last 4 away games. - Goal expectancy favors Fatih Karagümrük heavily (1.75 vs 0.25). - Home win odds of 2.00 offer value compared to the estimated 60% probability. Recommended Bet: Home Win