Benfica B hosts Farense in the Segunda Liga on March 22, 2026. The home team enters the fixture with a solid recent record, boasting a 75% win rate across their last four home games. In terms of goal output, Benfica B averages 2.25 goals scored per home game, while conceding just 1.00 goals. This defensive stability contrasts sharply with Farense, whose away form shows a 20% win rate and an average of 0.60 goals scored per away game. Farense also concedes heavily on the road, averaging 2.00 goals conceded per away game. Recent results highlight the disparity. Benfica B secured a 3-0 victory against Feirense recently, though they did suffer a 1-0 loss to Pacos Ferreira. Farense's away struggles are evident, with a 0-0 draw against Felgueiras 1932 and a 2-1 win against Lusitânia Lourosa being highlights. The head-to-head record favors Benfica B at home, with a 66.67% win rate in previous encounters at their venue. The betting market prices a Benfica B win at 2.35, implying a 42.5% probability. However, given the 75% home win rate and the 66.67% H2H home win rate, a probability estimate of 65% is well-supported by the data. This creates significant value. Goal expectancies suggest 2.92 total goals (Home 2.12, Away 0.80), supporting an Over 2.5 Goals market as well, but the Home Win offers the strongest edge. Key Points: - Benfica B Home Win Rate: 75% - Farense Away Win Rate: 20% - Head-to-Head Home Record: Benfica B 66.67% win rate - Goal Expectancy: Home 2.12, Away 0.80 - Home Win Odds: 2.35 In summary, the data strongly points to a Home Win for Benfica B. The combination of superior home form and historical dominance against Farense makes this the primary selection.