The National League serves up a fascinating clash this weekend as second-placed Carlisle travel to face a Solihull Moors side that has been absolutely rampant at home. On paper, this looks like a straightforward away win for the promotion-chasers, but dig into the recent data and you'll find a Solihull team that has been scoring goals for fun on their own patch. Let's start with the league table. Carlisle sit comfortably in second with 55 points from 26 games, boasting an impressive +19 goal difference. Solihull Moors are mid-table in ninth with 37 points, but that doesn't tell the full story of their recent home form. In their last six home matches, Solihull have won four and drawn two, scoring an astonishing 21 goals in the process. That's 3.5 goals per game at home, including a 7-1 demolition of Tamworth and a 4-1 thrashing of Sutton United. Even their draws were high-scoring affairs - 2-2 against AFC Fylde and 1-1 with Wealdstone. Carlisle's away form is solid but not spectacular. They've won three of their last six on the road, with victories at Gateshead (3-0), Boston United (2-1), and against lower-league opposition in the FA Trophy. However, they've also suffered defeats at Boreham Wood (2-0) and Woking (3-1). What's interesting is that Carlisle's goalscoring trend is actually declining according to the data, while their defense is improving. They average 1.33 goals per game away from home while conceding 1.50. When we look at the head-to-head record, there's only one previous meeting - a 1-1 draw back in August. That limited history makes this matchup particularly intriguing. The key narrative here is Solihull's incredible attacking output at home versus Carlisle's promotion-chasing credentials. Solihull have scored 28 goals in their last 10 matches across all competitions, with 80% of those games seeing both teams score. Carlisle have been more pragmatic, scoring 14 in their last 10 with both teams scoring in just half of those matches. From a betting perspective, the market has Carlisle as favorites at 2.15, which seems reasonable given their league position. However, Solihull at 3.00 for the home win represents interesting value given their home form. The draw at 3.40 could also appeal to some. **Key Points:** - Solihull Moors average 3.5 goals per game in their last 6 home matches - Carlisle have won 50% of their last 6 away games (3 wins, 3 losses) - Solihull's last 5 home games have produced 4.2 goals on average - Both teams have scored in 80% of Solihull's last 10 matches - Carlisle's away games average 2.83 total goals (1.33 for, 1.50 against) - The only previous meeting ended 1-1 in August 2025 **Summary:** This has all the makings of an entertaining encounter. Solihull's home form cannot be ignored - they're scoring goals at an incredible rate and have proven they can trouble even decent sides like Forest Green (1-1 draw). Carlisle will be confident given their league position, but they've shown vulnerability on the road against attacking teams. With Solihull's attacking momentum and Carlisle's decent away scoring record, the smart money here is on goals. The over 2.5 goals market at 1.67 offers excellent value given the statistical evidence.