Two mid-table National League sides with identical recent points-per-game records collide this weekend, but the underlying numbers tell a very different story. Tamworth, sitting 13th, have built their recent results on a foundation of defensive resilience, while 9th-placed Hartlepool have been wildly inconsistent, capable of a stunning win at league leaders Rochdale but also prone to heavy defeats. For us value-seeking bettors, this isn't about picking a winner—it's about identifying where the market has mispriced the most likely outcome. Let's cut straight to the form. Tamworth's last ten games read like a treatise on stalemate: two wins, five draws, and three losses. More tellingly, they've scored just six goals in that period—an average of 0.6 per game. However, they've also kept a remarkable five clean sheets, boasting a 50% shut-out rate. Their recent sequence includes four 0-0 draws in their last six outings across all competitions. At home, they're marginally better going forward (0.83 goals per game) but equally solid at the back (0.83 conceded). The 7-1 thrashing at Solihull Moors in December is a glaring outlier in an otherwise tight defensive record. Hartlepool's form is a rollercoaster. They've also taken 1.10 points per game from their last ten, but with three wins, two draws, and five losses. Their 2-1 victory away at Rochdale—the league's top side—shows their potential ceiling. Yet, they followed that with a 4-0 loss at Woking and a 3-0 home defeat to Aldershot Town. On the road, they are draw specialists (50% in their last four away) but struggle to score, netting just 0.50 goals per away game. They've conceded 1.25 on their travels, which suggests they give up chances. The head-to-head history leans slightly towards Hartlepool (one win, two draws), but more importantly, it underscores a trend of close, low-scoring affairs. Two of the three meetings ended in draws (1-1 and 2-2), with only one seeing over 2.5 goals. **Where's the betting value?** The market has the away win as the slight favourite at 2.45, with the draw at 3.25 and Tamworth at 2.94. The goal line is set at 2.5 with odds of 1.85 for under. The most intriguing market, however, is Both Teams to Score. 'Yes' is priced at 1.75, implying a 57% chance. Our data screams that this is wrong. Tamworth see both teams score in only 30% of their recent games, thanks largely to that 50% clean sheet rate. Hartlepool's figure is 40%. Combining these profiles and considering Hartlepool's impotent away attack (0.5 goals/game) against Tamworth's sturdy home defense, the probability of both teams finding the net feels closer to 30-35%. That makes the 'No' at 2.02 (implied probability 49.5%) a significant value opportunity. The goal expectancy figures provided (Home 1.04, Away 0.67) point to a probable total of around 1.7 goals, further supporting a low-scoring match where at least one side fails to score. With Tamworth's recent penchant for 0-0 draws and Hartlepool's struggles in front of goal on the road, the smart money is on at least one blank scoresheet. **Key Points:** * Tamworth have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 games (50% rate). * Hartlepool average only 0.5 goals per game in their recent away matches. * Both teams have scored in just 30% of Tamworth's and 40% of Hartlepool's last 10 games. * The last three head-to-head meetings have produced two draws and an average of just 2.33 total goals. * Market odds for 'Both Teams to Score - No' (2.02) imply a 49.5% chance, while our analysis suggests a true probability closer to 68%. **Summary:** This has all the makings of a cagey, low-event affair. Tamworth are hard to break down but lack a cutting edge, while Hartlepool are inconsistent and blunt on their travels. The value isn't in trying to predict a winner from two evenly-matched sides on recent form. It's in backing the strong statistical likelihood that at least one team will draw a blank. At odds of 2.02, 'Both Teams to Score - No' offers substantial positive expected value and is my recommended bet.