The National League throws up an intriguing clash at Huish Park this Saturday as 14th-placed Yeovil Town host playoff-chasing Scunthorpe. While the table suggests a straightforward away win with Scunthorpe sitting sixth on 61 points, the underlying data and recent form paint a very different picture that shouts value on the home side at 3.30. Yeovil come into this fixture with genuine momentum. Their last ten games have yielded 1.40 points per game with four wins, including an impressive 2-0 victory over mid-table Tamworth last time out and a thrilling 3-2 home win against Sutton United. More importantly, their trend lines are all pointing upward – goals scored, goals conceded, and points are all improving, with a three-game moving average of 2.33 points per game suggesting they're hitting form at the right time. At home, they've been particularly potent, averaging 1.75 goals per game while conceding just 1.25. Scunthorpe, despite their lofty league position, are in relative freefall. Their last ten matches have returned just 1.10 points per game with only three wins, and their defensive record is alarming – 24 goals conceded in that period (2.4 per game). The 6-3 humiliation against Boston United and a 3-0 drubbing by York in recent weeks expose a backline that's leaking chances. Away from home, they're conceding 2.00 goals per game while scoring just 1.50, and their three-game moving average of 0.33 points tells the story of a side struggling for results. The head-to-head record strongly favors Yeovil on home soil. They're unbeaten against Scunthorpe at Huish Park with one win and three draws from four encounters. The goal expectancy metrics further support the home side's case, with Yeovil projected at 1.88 expected goals compared to Scunthorpe's 1.38 – a significant advantage that the odds don't reflect. **Key Points:** • Yeovil are unbeaten at home against Scunthorpe (1W-3D-0L) and have scored 1.75 goals per game at home recently • Scunthorpe have conceded 24 goals in their last 10 games (2.4 per game) including a disastrous 3-6 defeat to Boston United • Goal expectancies favor Yeovil (1.88) over Scunthorpe (1.38) despite the away side being odds-on favorites • Yeovil's form is trending upward (2.33 points per game moving average) while Scunthorpe are declining (0.33 points per game moving average) • Scunthorpe's away defensive record shows 2.00 goals conceded per game, creating opportunities for Yeovil's attack The market appears to be pricing this based on league position alone, ignoring Scunthorpe's defensive collapse and Yeovil's home superiority. At 3.30, the value lies with the home win in what should be an open, high-chance game for both sides.