Match Timeline
J. Thompson⚽T. Leahy⚽
E. Sutcliffe⚽E. Sutcliffe⚽N. Odokonyero⚽Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 Tonbridge AngelsHome | Rating |  SalisburyAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,494.3 | Overall | 1,458.1 |
| 1,490.1 | Match venue | 1,426.9 |
| 1,490.1 | At home | 1,495.6 |
| 1,474.7 | Away | 1,426.9 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,463.3 | Attack | 1,443.4 |
| 1,542.5 | Defence | 1,516.7 |
| 1,494.4 | Home attack | 1,453.1 |
| 1,426.1 | Away attack | 1,432.5 |
| 1,515.1 | Home defence | 1,533.1 |
| 1,542.8 | Away defence | 1,489.6 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,696.7 | Goal environment | 1,515 |
| 1,620 | Home goals | 1,501.7 |
| 1,576.7 | Away goals | 1,513.3 |
| 1,500 | Possession | 1,500 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,500 | Set-piece attack | 1,500 |
| 1,500 | Set-piece defence | 1,500 |
| 1,499.1 | Close games | 1,458.7 |
| 1,496.7 | Winning margin | 1,459.7 |
Match venue compares Tonbridge Angels at home with Salisbury away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
The National League South fixture between Tonbridge Angels and Salisbury presents a classic clash of home advantage against away struggles. Tonbridge Angels sit 15th in the table with 54 points, while Salisbury are 19th with 49 points. The data reveals a significant disparity in home and away performance metrics that strongly favors the hosts. Tonbridge Angels have secured a 75% win rate in their last four home games, averaging 1.50 goals scored per match while conceding just 0.75. Recent home results include victories against Bath City (2-1), Worthing (1-0), and Hampton & Richmond (2-0). In contrast, Salisbury have managed zero wins in their last five away fixtures, conceding an alarming 2.00 goals per game on the road. This defensive frailty away from home is a critical factor when analyzing the goal expectancy, which projects a total of 2.72 goals for the match. Head-to-head records further solidify the home advantage. In three previous meetings, Tonbridge Angels hold a 2-1 advantage, but specifically at their home ground, they have a 100% win rate against Salisbury. The last meeting at this venue ended 3-1 in favor of Tonbridge. Salisbury's recent away form shows a 0% win rate, and their goal environment suggests high-scoring games when they play on the road. The betting market offers odds of 2.05 for a Tonbridge Angels victory. This implies a probability of roughly 48.8%. However, combining the 100% H2H home win rate, the 75% recent home win rate, and Salisbury's 0% away win rate, the true probability appears to be closer to 55% or higher. This creates a clear value opportunity with an edge exceeding the 6% threshold required for a profitable bet. While goal markets like Over 2.5 Goals (1.85) are tempting given the 2.72 expected goals, the Home Win market offers the strongest statistical backing. Salisbury's inability to secure points away from home makes them vulnerable to a home team with a strong recent track record. The volatility index for Tonbridge is 0.9156, indicating some inconsistency, but the home advantage is the dominant signal here. **Key Points:** * Tonbridge Angels have a 75% win rate at home recently. * Salisbury have a 0% win rate in their last 5 away games. * Head-to-Head: Tonbridge has won 100% of home meetings against Salisbury. * Goal Expectancy: 2.72 total goals expected. * Recommended Bet: Tonbridge Angels to Win.
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