Match Timeline
A. Lund⚽
J. Johnston⚽K. Burton⚽L. Brennan⚽Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 Alfreton TownHome | Rating |  BuxtonAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,484.9 | Overall | 1,591.2 |
| 1,533.4 | Match venue | 1,590.7 |
| 1,533.4 | At home | 1,503.1 |
| 1,434.8 | Away | 1,590.7 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,417.3 | Attack | 1,554 |
| 1,514.9 | Defence | 1,575.9 |
| 1,448 | Home attack | 1,508.3 |
| 1,415.8 | Away attack | 1,557 |
| 1,551.1 | Home defence | 1,528.1 |
| 1,480.8 | Away defence | 1,580.6 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,618.3 | Goal environment | 1,648.3 |
| 1,553.3 | Home goals | 1,560 |
| 1,565 | Away goals | 1,588.3 |
| 1,500 | Possession | 1,500 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,500 | Set-piece attack | 1,500 |
| 1,500 | Set-piece defence | 1,500 |
| 1,556.5 | Close games | 1,492.9 |
| 1,464.2 | Winning margin | 1,620.4 |
Match venue compares Alfreton Town at home with Buxton away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
Alfreton Town host Buxton in a crucial National League North clash. The data presents a stark contrast in recent form. Buxton arrives in exceptional shape, winning 8 of their last 10 matches, boasting a 100% win rate in their last 6 away fixtures. Their away defensive record is particularly robust, conceding just 0.5 goals per game on the road. In contrast, Alfreton Town are struggling, managing only 3 wins in their last 10 games. Their home scoring output is low at 0.83 goals per game, and they have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 matches overall. The head-to-head record offers a twist. Historically, Alfreton Town has a perfect 3-0-0 record at home against Buxton. However, the most recent meeting ended in a heavy 0-6 defeat for Alfreton. This suggests Buxton has closed the gap significantly. Buxton's current away form (6 wins in 6 away games) vastly outperforms Alfreton's home form (2 wins in 6 home games). Goal expectancy models suggest a total of 2.25 goals (Home 0.67, Away 1.58). This leans towards Under 2.5 Goals, but the key signal lies in the likelihood of both teams scoring. Alfreton's home scoring rate is low (0.83), while Buxton's away defensive record is elite (0.50 conceded). With Buxton scoring 2.0 goals per game away and Alfreton struggling to find the net, a clean sheet for the visitors is highly probable. The market prices Both Teams to Score - No at 2.12, implying a 47% chance. Given Alfreton's low scoring rate and Buxton's tight defense, the true probability is significantly higher, offering substantial value. Buxton's recent clean sheet rate is 50%, and Alfreton has only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 games. The combination of Buxton's strong away attack and Alfreton's weak home offense points to a match where one team fails to score. The odds for Both Teams to Score - No provide a clear edge over the implied probability, meeting the value threshold. While Alfreton has a strong historical home record against Buxton, the current form gap and goal statistics heavily favor the visitors keeping a clean sheet or Alfreton failing to score.
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