We head to Serie B for a crucial relegation six-pointer as 17th-placed Spezia host 15th-placed Reggiana with just one point separating these struggling sides. With both teams desperate to pull away from the drop zone, the data strongly favours the hosts given the stark contrast between Spezia's home performances and Reggiana's dismal away record. Spezia come into this fixture with respectable home form, having won 50% of their last four at their own ground while averaging a solid 1.00 goals per game. Their recent 3-2 victory away at Cesena (who sit mid-table with 1.00 points per game) demonstrated genuine attacking threat against decent opposition, while their only home defeat in recent weeks came against promotion-chasing Frosinone (2.10 PPG) – a forgivable loss. They've also kept things tight defensively at home, conceding just 1.00 per game, and boast superior underlying metrics to their opponents with 50.7% possession and 6.30 corners per game. Reggiana, however, arrive with a dreadful away record that makes grim reading for their travelling supporters. They have failed to win any of their last five away fixtures (losing four), scoring a meagre 0.60 goals per game on the road while shipping 1.60 at the other end. Alarmingly, their recent 2-1 defeat at bottom-placed Pescara (0.50 PPG) shows they struggle even against the league's weakest sides away from home. While they've shown signs of life recently with three games unbeaten (W-D-D), their solitary win came against struggling Mantova, and their away day woes show no signs of abating with just 9.20 shots per game on their travels compared to 12.20 at home. The head-to-head history further supports the home side, with Spezia winning 66.67% of home fixtures against Reggiana historically. The goal expectancy of 2.10 (1.30 for Spezia, 0.80 for Reggiana) reflects Reggiana's inability to find the net away from home, while Spezia's solid if unspectacular home record should see them through. **Key Points:** - Spezia have won 50% of recent home games, while Reggiana have 0% away wins in their last five (four defeats) - Reggiana average just 0.60 goals per game away from home and recently lost to bottom-placed Pescara - Spezia demonstrated attacking quality with a 3-2 win at Cesena and have beaten mid-table sides Avellino and Pescara at home - Head-to-head record shows Spezia win two-thirds of home meetings against Reggiana - Goal expectancy of 2.10 suggests a low-scoring affair favouring the hosts **Summary:** The home/away splits here are too significant to ignore. Spezia perform adequately at home against sides of Reggiana's calibre, while the visitors have shown nothing on the road to suggest they can avoid defeat. At 1.95, the home win offers solid value with a clear statistical edge over the implied probability.