We've got a proper six-pointer in Serie B this Saturday as 19th-placed Bari host 18th-placed Reggiana, with just a single point separating these relegation-threatened sides. Given the stakes and the statistical profiles of both teams, this has all the hallmarks of a tense, cagey encounter where clear-cut chances will be at a premium. Looking at the recent form, Bari come into this off the back of a humbling 4-0 defeat at Pescara, though they had shown signs of life prior to that with back-to-back wins against Empoli (2-1) and Sampdoria (2-0). That's three wins in their last ten, averaging 0.90 goals per game while conceding 1.50. The concerning metric for Bari supporters is their home attacking output – just 0.60 goals per game in their last five at home, with a 60% loss rate in that sample. Reggiana arrive in similarly patchy form, having lost their last two without scoring – a 2-0 reverse at league leaders Venezia followed by a damaging 4-0 home thrashing by Sudtirol. They've managed just two wins from their last ten, averaging a meagre 0.60 goals per game. Their away record is particularly grim: 0.40 goals scored per game on the road, with a 60% loss rate in their last five away fixtures. The head-to-head record makes fascinating reading. Bari have never beaten Reggiana in eight attempts (0-5-3), with five of those eight meetings ending in draws. Even more telling for our purposes is that six of those eight encounters stayed under 2.5 goals, including the reverse fixture in October which Reggiana won 3-1 (one of only two H2H overs in this sample). From a statistical standpoint, the goal expectancies tell the story: 0.90 for Bari, 0.90 for Reggiana, giving us a combined expectation of just 1.8 goals. When you factor in Bari's home shot accuracy of just 18.9% and Reggiana's away scoring rate of 0.40 goals per game, it's difficult to see where the goals are coming from. Both sides are also showing negative finishing deltas, indicating they're underperforming their expected goals – not exactly a recipe for a goal-fest. **Key Points:** • Bari have failed to beat Reggiana in 8 previous meetings (0-5-3 record) • 6 of the last 8 H2H meetings finished under 2.5 goals (75%) • Reggiana averaging just 0.40 goals per game away from home • Bari averaging just 0.60 goals per game at home • Combined goal expectancy of just 1.8 goals for this fixture • Both teams showing declining defensive trends but even worse attacking output The market has this priced as a relatively open game with over 2.5 available at 2.25, but the data simply doesn't support that narrative. With two struggling attacks, a history of tight encounters, and goal expectancies sitting well below the 2.5 threshold, the under looks the obvious play. At 1.62, we're getting sufficient value on what should be a nervy, low-quality relegation scrap where neither side will want to make the first mistake.