Monza welcomes Modena to the Stadio Brianteo for a crucial Serie B clash on April 24, 2026. Monza enters this fixture sitting comfortably in third place with 72 points, while Modena trails in sixth with 52 points. The gap of 20 points highlights the disparity in form. Monza's recent home performance is particularly dominant, boasting a 75% win rate over their last four home games. They average 2.00 goals scored per home game while conceding just 0.25 goals per game. This defensive solidity is reflected in their 60% clean sheet rate over the last 10 matches. In their last 10 games, Monza has won 6, drawn 3, and lost 1, averaging 2.10 points per game. Modena presents a contrasting picture. Their away form is inconsistent, with a 20% win rate in their last five away fixtures. They have conceded an average of 1.80 goals per game on the road, compared to Monza's stingy 0.25 at home. In terms of attacking output, Monza averages 16.00 shots per home game, while Modena manages 14.20 shots away. Possession also favors the hosts, with Monza holding 52.3% of the ball at home versus Modena's 49.0% away. Monza's shots on target average 5.00 at home, significantly higher than Modena's 4.40 away. The head-to-head record is short but favorable to Monza, who won the last meeting 2-1. Goal expectancy models suggest Monza should score around 1.90 goals, while Modena is expected to score 0.82. This combination points towards a Monza victory. The betting market prices a home win at 1.83, implying a 54.6% probability. Given Monza's 75% home win rate and defensive strength, the actual probability appears significantly higher, offering value. Key Points: - Monza: 75% home win rate, 2.00 goals scored/game. - Modena: 20% away win rate, 1.80 goals conceded/game. - H2H: Monza won the last meeting 2-1. - Odds: Home Win 1.83 offers value based on form. The statistical signals align to support a home victory. Monza's defensive record at home is exceptional, and Modena struggles to score away. The recommended bet is a Home Win.