The Serie B fixture between Carrarese and Cesena presents a compelling statistical mismatch that favors the home side. Sitting 10th with 43 points, Carrarese have shown resilience at home, averaging 2.00 goals scored and conceding 1.40 per game across their last five home matches. Their overall form over the last 10 games yields 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, translating to 1.30 points per game. Notably, their home record stands at 40% wins and 40% draws, with a strong shot accuracy of 35.9% and an average of 4.60 shots on target per home match. Conversely, Cesena, currently 9th with 45 points, are struggling significantly on the road. Their last 10 games show just 1 win, 5 draws, and 4 losses, averaging a mere 0.80 goals scored and conceding 1.50. Away from home, Cesena have failed to win any of their last five away fixtures, scoring only 0.20 goals per game while conceding 1.60. Their away shot accuracy drops to 25.6%, and they average just 2.40 shots on target on the road. This defensive vulnerability combined with an anemic away attack creates a clear opportunity for the home side. Head-to-head history further supports Carrarese. In nine meetings, Carrarese hold a 2-2-0 record at home against Cesena, meaning they have never lost at home to this opponent. The last meeting on 28 October 2025 ended 1-2 to Cesena, but that was an away fixture for Carrarese. Overall, both teams have scored in 7 of the 9 encounters, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 matches, indicating a historically goal-friendly rivalry. From a probabilistic standpoint, the goal expectancy models project Carrarese to score 1.80 goals against Cesena's 0.80. This translates to a home win probability of approximately 57.5%. Given the bookmaker's odds of 2.25 (implied probability of 44.4%), the bet carries a positive expected value of roughly 13%, comfortably clearing the 6% edge threshold. Carrarese's declining scoring trend is a minor concern, but their home defensive solidity and Cesena's away winless streak provide multiple confirmatory signals. With a confidence level of 65%, this fixture offers a statistically sound value play. Key Points: - Carrarese average 2.00 goals at home vs Cesena's 0.20 away. - Cesena have 0% away win rate in their last 5 road games. - Carrarese are unbeaten at home against Cesena (2W, 2D). - Goal expectancy favors Carrarese (1.80 vs 0.80). - Home Win odds of 2.25 offer ~13% positive EV. Based on Carrarese's home advantage, Cesena's away struggles, and the statistical edge, the recommended bet is Home Win.