The A-League serves up a fascinating clash between two sides languishing in the bottom half of the table, but with contrasting recent narratives. Perth Glory, sitting 10th, welcome 11th-placed Central Coast Mariners in a match where home advantage has been anything but for the hosts. Let's cut straight to the most glaring statistic: Perth Glory's home form is nothing short of abysmal. In their last five matches at their own ground, they have managed a solitary 1-0 victory over the league's bottom side, Western Sydney Wanderers. The other four results? All defeats, with a miserly total of one goal scored and six conceded. That's an average of 0.2 goals per game at home. Their recent 0-1 loss to Adelaide United and 0-1 defeat to Sydney FC underscore a chronic inability to find the net in front of their own fans. Ironically, their away form tells a completely different story, with impressive wins like the 3-1 triumph at Melbourne City and a 2-0 victory at Macarthur. This Jekyll and Hyde performance makes them a nightmare to assess, but the data is clear: at home, they are blunt. Central Coast Mariners arrive with a bit of a spring in their step after a stunning 4-0 demolition of Adelaide United on the road just a few days ago. That result snapped a run of five defeats in six games and highlighted their potential on their travels. Their away record in the last five shows two wins, including that 4-0 rout and a 1-0 victory in this very fixture back in November. They average a respectable 1.6 goals per game on the road, though they also concede at the same rate. The head-to-head history adds another layer, with the Mariners unbeaten in the last three encounters (W1 D2), including that 1-0 win at Perth earlier this season. When we drill into the key metrics, Perth's problems at home become even more stark. They average a paltry 2.4 shots on target per game with a shot accuracy of just 16.6% at home. They see plenty of the ball (51.2% possession) but do very little with it. The Mariners, meanwhile, are more clinical on the road, hitting 3.6 shots on target with 31.2% accuracy. The trends are also pointing in opposite directions: Perth's points trend is declining, while the Mariners are showing slight improvements in goals scored and points. **Key Points:** * Perth Glory have scored just ONE goal in their last five home matches. * Central Coast Mariners won the reverse fixture 1-0 in Perth this season. * Mariners are coming off a morale-boosting 4-0 away win at Adelaide. * Perth's home attack averages 0.2 goals per game; Mariners' away attack averages 1.6. * Head-to-head history shows Both Teams to Score in 67% of meetings, but current form overrides this. For a betting tipster like me, it's all about finding value where the market may have mispriced reality. The odds for 'Both Teams to Score - No' at 2.00 present exactly that opportunity. Given Perth's profound struggles to score at home and the Mariners' decent but not impregnable defence, the most likely scenario is that one, or possibly neither, team finds the net. The probability of both scoring feels significantly lower than the implied 50% from the odds. The recent 4-0 Mariners win and the 1-0 result in November both landed in the 'No' camp, and I expect a similar, tight affair here. **Summary:** Perth's home goal drought is the defining story of this match. While Central Coast are far from reliable, they have the attacking tools to score. The value bet, based on the stark data, is that we won't see goals from both sides.