It's a clash between two sides languishing in the bottom half of the A-League table as ninth-placed Brisbane Roar host tenth-placed Perth Glory. While both teams arrive at Suncorp Stadium desperate for points to climb away from the relegation conversation, the data strongly suggests this won't be a tight, tactical affair. Brisbane Roar's home form makes for grim reading. They've lost their last four consecutive home matches, shipping 10 goals in the process (2.50 per game) and failing to score in three of those four outings. Their recent 1-0 loss to Sydney, 1-2 defeat to Central Coast Mariners, and heavy 4-1 thrashing at Newcastle Jets highlight a side that's defensively fragile and struggling for confidence on their own turf. However, there is a silver lining – they did beat Perth Glory 2-1 in the reverse fixture in Perth on January 16th, showing they can hurt this opposition. Perth Glory arrive with their own defensive concerns, having just been hammered 4-0 by Adelaide United and conceding three at home to Newcastle Jets in their last two outings. Their away record shows a 60% loss rate, leaking 2.20 goals per game on the road. Yet unlike Brisbane, they've managed to find the net consistently away from home, scoring in four of their last five away trips including a 3-1 win at Melbourne City and a 2-2 draw at Macarthur. The head-to-head history between these two is remarkable – eight consecutive matches without a draw, split evenly at four wins apiece. More importantly for bettors, seven of those eight meetings have seen Over 2.5 Goals land, with Both Teams Scoring in seven of eight as well. The average goals per game in this fixture sits at a hefty 3.5. From a statistical standpoint, the Poisson goal expectancies give us 1.48 for Brisbane and 1.95 for Perth, totaling 3.43 expected goals. With Brisbane conceding 2.50 per game at home and Perth conceding 2.20 away, neither defence looks capable of keeping a clean sheet. Perth's shot data shows they're creating chances (12.4 shots per game, 4.6 on target) but have been underperforming their expected goals recently, suggesting positive regression is due – especially against Brisbane's leaky backline. **Key Points:** • Brisbane have lost 4 consecutive home matches, conceding 10 goals (2.50 per game) • 7 of the last 8 H2H meetings have seen Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score • Perth have scored in 4 of their last 5 away trips, averaging 1.40 goals per game away • Combined goal expectancy of 3.43 suggests strong value on the overs • Brisbane kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 10; Perth kept just 1 in their last 10 **Summary:** With both sides defensively shambolic and historical trends pointing firmly toward a goal-fest, the 1.80 available on Over 2.5 Goals represents excellent value. Expect an open, entertaining contest with plenty of chances at both ends.