The Liga Profesional Argentina fixture between Central Cordoba de Santiago and Newells Old Boys presents a clear mismatch in current form. Central Cordoba de Santiago are hosting Newells Old Boys on April 5, 2026, and the data strongly favors the home side. Central Cordoba de Santiago have been solid at home. In their last 5 home games, they achieved a 60% win rate with no losses. Their home attack averages 1.20 goals per game, while their defense concedes just 0.40 goals per game. Recent home results include a 1-0 win against Deportivo Riestra and a 2-0 victory over Talleres Cordoba. This defensive stability at home is a key factor. In contrast, Newells Old Boys are struggling significantly on the road. Their away record in the last 4 games shows a 0% win rate, with 3 losses and 1 draw. They average only 0.25 goals scored away but concede a heavy 2.75 goals per game. Recent away defeats include 0-2 losses to Rosario Central and Estudiantes L.P., highlighting their vulnerability. Head-to-head history also supports Central. In the last 3 home meetings, Central Cordoba de Santiago won 2 of them. The goal expectancy model predicts 1.98 goals for the home team and 0.33 for the visitors, suggesting a comfortable home victory. The betting odds for a Home Win sit at 2.38, implying a 42% probability. Given the form disparity, we estimate a 60% true probability, offering significant value. Key Points: - Central Cordoba de Santiago: 60% home win rate (last 5 games). - Newells Old Boys: 0% away win rate (last 4 games). - Goal Expectancy: Home 1.98 vs Away 0.33. - H2H: Central won 2 of the last 3 home meetings. Summary: Based on the stark contrast in home and away form, along with favorable goal expectancy and head-to-head records, the recommended bet is a Home Win.