Match Timeline
J. Portilla🟨
Thiago Mendes🟨C. Teran🔄Thiago Mendes⚽J. Rojas🟨Luiz Gustavo🔄J. Rojas🔄Robert Renan🟨Bruninho🔄Joao Cruz🔄Renan Peixoto🔄Adson🔄C. Spinelli🔄Andres Gomez🟨Lucas Piton🔄Andres Gomez🔄Match Statistics
Starting Lineups
Vasco DA Gama1:1
Starting XI
Atletico Paranaense1:1
Starting XI
Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 Vasco DA GamaHome | Rating |  Atletico ParanaenseAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,533.4 | Overall | 1,535.7 |
| 1,563.7 | Match venue | 1,456.7 |
| 1,563.7 | At home | 1,598.3 |
| 1,449.4 | Away | 1,456.7 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,528.4 | Attack | 1,490.5 |
| 1,501.1 | Defence | 1,579.8 |
| 1,541 | Home attack | 1,528.3 |
| 1,468.1 | Away attack | 1,428 |
| 1,517 | Home defence | 1,598.4 |
| 1,483.9 | Away defence | 1,548.7 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,433.3 | Goal environment | 1,190 |
| 1,490 | Home goals | 1,390 |
| 1,443.3 | Away goals | 1,300 |
| 1,522.9 | Possession | 1,497.9 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,506.3 | Set-piece attack | 1,511 |
| 1,506.1 | Set-piece defence | 1,510.6 |
| 1,511.1 | Close games | 1,467.8 |
| 1,537.1 | Winning margin | 1,555.2 |
Match venue compares Vasco DA Gama at home with Atletico Paranaense away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
Vasco DA Gama host Atletico Paranaense in a Serie A clash on May 10, 2026. Sitting 13th in the table with 17 points from 14 matches, Vasco enter this fixture looking to climb the standings. Their last 10 games show a 40% win rate, averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, their record improves to a 50% win rate over their last 4 matches, averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Their goal scoring trend is mathematically improving, with a 3-game moving average of 2.33 goals. Atletico Paranaense arrive from 5th place with 23 points. While their overall form is solid (50% win rate, 1.40 goals/game), their away record is severely lacking. In their last 3 away matches, they have lost all three, scoring just 0.33 goals per game while conceding 2.00. This stark contrast in venue performance heavily favors the hosts. Head-to-head history reinforces this split. In 10 meetings, Atletico holds a slight edge overall (5 wins to 3), but at the Sao Januario stadium, Vasco boasts a 3-1-1 record (60% win rate). Recent encounters include a 1-2 loss, two 2-1 wins, a 0-1 loss, and a 0-0 draw. The goal expectancy model projects 1.88 goals for Vasco and 0.79 for Atletico, totaling 2.67 expected goals, which aligns with a tight, low-scoring affair likely decided by a single goal margin. Fatigue factors slightly favor Atletico, who have had 8 days rest compared to Vasco's 4 days after playing 3 matches in the last 14 days. However, the statistical disparity in venue performance is too pronounced to ignore. With home odds at 1.90, the market implies a 52.6% chance of a home victory. Given Vasco's 50% home win rate, 60% H2H home win rate, and Atletico's 0% away win rate, the true probability sits closer to 60%, offering a clear edge. Key Points: - Vasco DA Gama: 50% home win rate, averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded at home. - Atletico Paranaense: 0% away win rate in last 3 games, averaging just 0.33 goals scored away. - Head-to-Head: Vasco holds a 3-1-1 record at home against Atletico. - Goal Expectancy: 1.88 (Home) vs 0.79 (Away), projecting a tight match. - Odds: Home Win priced at 1.90 offers value against the implied probability. The data strongly supports a Vasco DA Gama victory, making the Home Win the logical selection.
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