Match Timeline
J. Doyle🟨
S. Mohan🔄M. Alonge🔄L. Cailloce🔄L. Dignam🟨R. Ritchie🔄R. Butler🔄M. Rowe🔄A. Verdon🟨M. Raggett🔄M. Murphy🟨E. Osam🟨H. Smith🟨L. Dignam🔄A. Verdon🔄Starting Lineups
UCDUnknown
Starting XI
WexfordUnknown
Starting XI
Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 UCDHome | Rating |  WexfordAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,493.9 | Overall | 1,460.4 |
| 1,489.8 | Match venue | 1,490.3 |
| 1,489.8 | At home | 1,444.4 |
| 1,521.9 | Away | 1,490.3 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,470 | Attack | 1,454.9 |
| 1,536.5 | Defence | 1,468.3 |
| 1,436.9 | Home attack | 1,443.9 |
| 1,496.1 | Away attack | 1,474.4 |
| 1,546.8 | Home defence | 1,462.8 |
| 1,530.1 | Away defence | 1,502.2 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,628.3 | Goal environment | 1,783.3 |
| 1,515 | Home goals | 1,615 |
| 1,613.3 | Away goals | 1,668.3 |
| 1,500 | Possession | 1,500 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,500 | Set-piece attack | 1,500 |
| 1,500 | Set-piece defence | 1,500 |
| 1,470.5 | Close games | 1,495.3 |
| 1,506.7 | Winning margin | 1,448.4 |
Match venue compares UCD at home with Wexford away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
The First Division clash between UCD and Wexford promises a tight contest between two mid-table rivals separated by just one point in the standings. UCD sits 3rd with 13 points from 8 games, while Wexford is 4th with 12 points. Both teams have shown resilience, but the home advantage and historical head-to-head records point towards a specific outcome. UCD's home form is particularly compelling. In their last 4 home fixtures, the team has secured a 75% win rate. Their attacking output at home averages 2.00 goals per game, while their defense has been solid, conceding just 0.50 goals per game. This defensive stability is highlighted by a 40% clean sheet rate in home matches. Recent results support this, including a 4-0 victory over Cobh Ramblers and a 2-0 win against Treaty United. Wexford presents a different challenge on the road. Their away performance shows a 25% win rate in their last 4 away games. While they average 1.50 goals scored per game away, they have conceded 1.25 goals per game. Their recent away results include a 2-2 draw with Athlone Town and a 1-1 draw with Finn Harps, indicating they can find the net but struggle to keep clean sheets on the road. The head-to-head record strongly favors the home side. In the last three meetings at UCD's ground, UCD has won all three matches with scores of 3-0, 1-0, and 1-0. This historical dominance at the venue is a significant signal. Goal expectancy models suggest a total of 2.62 expected goals for the match. However, the betting market prices the Over 2.5 Goals at 1.96, which implies a 51% probability. Given the fair probability is estimated around 48.83%, the value is marginal. Conversely, the Home Win odds of 2.20 imply a 45.45% probability. Considering UCD's 75% home win rate and 100% H2H home win rate in recent history, the true probability is likely higher, offering value. Key Points: * UCD Home Win Rate (Last 4): 75% * H2H Home Record: UCD won last 3 meetings (3-0, 1-0, 1-0) * UCD Home Goals Scored: 2.00 per game * Wexford Away Goals Conceded: 1.25 per game * Standings: UCD 3rd (13 pts), Wexford 4th (12 pts) Based on the combination of superior home form, defensive stability, and dominant head-to-head history at this venue, the logical selection is the UCD Win.
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