🟨
Real Cartagena0-3Popayan
Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 18:45
Full Time

Match Timeline

9'
J. Crawford⚽
Normal Goal
17'
A. Maloney🟨
Yellow Card
44'
R. Kelly🟨
Yellow Card
60'
A. AzendeπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ B. O'Neill
61'
B. McCormackπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ T. Sammy
65'
D. AdewaleπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ W. Smith
70'
R. KellyπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ D. O'Shea
71'
R. LyonsπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ G. Lomboto
80'
R. FerizajπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ D. Ring
80'
I. Achara🟨
Yellow Card
87'
C. Tollett⚽
Normal Goal
88'
C. TollettπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ T. Considine
90+4'
T. Sammy⚽
Normal Goal

Head-to-Head

πŸ“ˆ Team Form & Statistics

Athlone Town
Athlone Town
Form: L-W-L-L-L
Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
Form: L-D-L-W-D
Record
4 W
1 D
5 L
β€’
4 W
3 D
3 L
Goals Per Game
1.1
Scored
vs
1.2
Scored
1.4
Conceded
vs
1.1
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
BTTS
40%
BTTS
70%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.6
Away:0.6
Conceded
Home:1.0
Away:1.8
Scored
Home:1.8
Away:0.6
Conceded
Home:1.2
Away:1.0

ELO comparison

Pre-match ratings

Rating period
Match snapshot
Athlone Town versus Bray Wanderers: long term ELO, before the match
Athlone TownHomeRatingBray WanderersAway
Strength
1,335.7Overall1,502.9
1,432.1Match venue1,427.6
1,432.1At home1,576.3
1,331.9Away1,427.6
Attack & defence
1,377Attack1,487.7
1,431.8Defence1,482.1
1,424.9Home attack1,559.7
1,373.7Away attack1,407.4
1,478.5Home defence1,486.5
1,403.1Away defence1,496.8
Match profile
1,905Goal environment1,693.3
1,728.3Home goals1,661.7
1,676.7Away goals1,531.7
1,500Possession1,500
Specialist ratings
1,500Set-piece attack1,500
1,500Set-piece defence1,500
1,405.7Close games1,537.7
1,315.8Winning margin1,495.3

Match venue compares Athlone Town at home with Bray Wanderers away. All ratings are within this league.

Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.

πŸ“ Match Preview

Athlone Town vs Bray Wanderers: Under 2.5 Goals Tip
Recommendation:UNDER_2_5
Odds:1.95
Expected Value:+26.8%
Confidence:65

The upcoming First Division clash between Athlone Town and Bray Wanderers presents a fascinating conflict between historical dominance and current form. Historically, Bray Wanderers have held a significant psychological edge, winning 8 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, with 7 of those games seeing Over 2.5 goals. This history might suggest a high-scoring affair. However, our analysis prioritizes recent results over historical data. Current form tells a different story. Athlone Town, hosting at home, has averaged 1.60 goals scored per game but has seen their scoring trend decline. More critically, Bray Wanderers' away form is struggling significantly. In their last 5 away games, they have only managed 0.60 goals per game, a stark contrast to their historical 2.10 goals per game against Athlone. The Goal Expectancy model, derived from recent performance data, projects a total of 2.10 goals for the match (1.30 for Athlone, 0.80 for Bray). A total expectancy of 2.10 strongly favors the Under 2.5 Goals market. While the head-to-head record suggests a high-scoring game, the recent statistical trends and goal expectancy align with a lower-scoring outcome. The odds for Under 2.5 Goals sit at 1.95, implying a 51.3% probability. Given the goal expectancy of 2.10, the mathematical probability of Under 2.5 is approximately 65%, indicating significant value. Both teams show declining goal trends. Athlone's scoring is dropping, and Bray's away attack is particularly weak. The market odds for Under 2.5 (1.95) do not fully reflect the strength of the recent form signals. While the H2H history is compelling, the instruction to prioritize recent results leads us to favor the defensive outcome. The volatility index for both teams suggests inconsistency, but the goal expectancy is the most robust signal here. **Key Points:** - Bray Wanderers dominate H2H (8 wins in 10 games), but recent away form is poor (0.60 goals/game). - Goal Expectancy sums to 2.10, favoring Under 2.5. - Recent trends show declining goals for both sides. - Market odds of 1.95 for Under 2.5 offer value against the 65% calculated probability. **Summary:** Based on the conflict between H2H history and current form, we prioritize the recent goal expectancy of 2.10. This supports the **Under 2.5 Goals** selection at 1.95 odds.

Read Full Preview β†’