Match Timeline
F. Valot🔄D. Garcia🟨
C. Lindley🔄E. Kizza🔄P. Wilson⚽J. O'Brien🔄A. Quinn🔄N. Kibunguchy🟨Bruno Lapa🔄J. de Vicente🔄A. Mitrano🔄K. McIntosh🟨B. Jacquesson🔄W. Prentice🔄Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 Indy ElevenHome | Rating |  Oakland RootsAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,531.3 | Overall | 1,463.3 |
| 1,604.8 | Match venue | 1,509.3 |
| 1,604.8 | At home | 1,440.8 |
| 1,428.4 | Away | 1,509.3 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,517.8 | Attack | 1,462.6 |
| 1,528.5 | Defence | 1,484.4 |
| 1,573.2 | Home attack | 1,403.9 |
| 1,432.2 | Away attack | 1,538.9 |
| 1,552.3 | Home defence | 1,515.8 |
| 1,496.5 | Away defence | 1,459.2 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,613.3 | Goal environment | 1,648.3 |
| 1,538.3 | Home goals | 1,451.7 |
| 1,575 | Away goals | 1,696.7 |
| 1,500 | Possession | 1,500 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,500 | Set-piece attack | 1,500 |
| 1,500 | Set-piece defence | 1,500 |
| 1,527.3 | Close games | 1,497.2 |
| 1,537.9 | Winning margin | 1,451.9 |
Match venue compares Indy Eleven at home with Oakland Roots away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
Indy Eleven enters this USL Championship fixture with significant momentum, coming off a dominant 4-0 victory over Brooklyn. While their overall win rate stands at 30.00% over their last 10 matches, their performance at home tells a different story. Indy Eleven averages 1.80 goals scored per game at home while maintaining a relatively disciplined defense, conceding only 1.00 goal per game in their own backyard. Their recent form shows an improving trend in goal production and a declining trend in goals conceded, providing a strong foundation for a home win. In contrast, Oakland Roots are enduring a difficult period. They have managed only a single win in their last 10 games, resulting in a meager win rate of 10.00% and a negative goal difference of -10. Their away form is particularly concerning, where they average a dismal 0.25 goals scored per game. While they have managed to secure some draws recently, their inability to find the back of the net on the road is a major red flag for bettors. Their goal expectancy (λ) of 0.62 away from home suggests they will struggle to put pressure on the Indy Eleven backline. When analyzing the goal environment, the data points toward a low-scoring affair. The combined goal expectancy (λ) for this match is 1.89, which is well below the 2.5 threshold. Furthermore, both teams show declining trends in goals conceded. Although Oakland Roots holds a 2-0 head-to-head advantage over Indy Eleven, the current disparity in form is too large to ignore. Oakland's struggle to score away from home, combined with Indy's clinical 4-0 win in their last outing, suggests a game where goals will be hard to come by. Given the low goal expectancy and Oakland's poor away scoring output, the value lies in the Under 2.5 Goals market. With the odds at 2.20, there is a significant edge over the implied probability, especially considering that a 1-0, 2-0, or 1-1 scoreline covers the most statistically likely outcomes for this matchup. Key Points: - Indy Eleven is coming off a 4-0 win and averages 1.80 goals per game at home. - Oakland Roots has a poor 10% win rate over their last 10 games and only scores 0.25 goals per game away. - The combined goal expectancy (λ) for the match is 1.89, favoring a low-scoring game. - Both teams are showing declining trends in goals conceded. - Oakland's historical head-to-head dominance is undermined by their current poor form. Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
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