One Knoxville host Richmond Kickers in USL League One action on March 27, 2026, with the host side looking to build on their solid start to the campaign. The league table already tells a compelling story: Knoxville sits 4th with 4 points from 3 games, while Richmond languishes in 15th place with just 1 point from 2 matches. The form contrast is stark. Knoxville have won 7 of their last 10 games (70% win rate), averaging 2.20 points per game while scoring 15 goals and conceding just 9. Their home fortress has been particularly impressive with a 71.43% win rate at home, averaging 1.29 goals scored and just 0.57 goals conceded per game. Richmond present a very different picture. Their away form is alarming - they have won 0% of their last 5 away games, averaging just 0.60 goals scored per game while conceding 2.00 goals. This away frailty is a significant concern heading into Knoxville. The head-to-head record is relatively balanced at 7 meetings - Richmond leads 3-1 with 3 draws. However, the last meeting saw Richmond win 2-1 at Knoxville in October 2025. Interestingly, the H2H has seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of 7 matches (57%) and both teams scored in 5 of 7 (71%). Recent results show Knoxville drawing 0-0 with Corpus Christi on March 24, but their US Open Cup 3-1 win over Vistula demonstrated their attacking capability. Richmond lost 0-1 to Naples on March 21 before beating Evergreen 2-0 in the US Open Cup. The goal expectancy analysis points to a home-dominant affair, with Knoxville expected to score 1.64 goals compared to Richmond's 0.59. This aligns with Knoxville's defensive solidity at home (0.57 goals conceded per game) and Richmond's away goal-scoring struggles (0.60 per game). The betting odds reflect Knoxville's home advantage at 1.78 for the home win, Richmond at 4.88, and a draw at 3.65. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.00, while under 2.5 is 1.85. Key Points: - Knoxville unbeaten in 71.43% of home games with strong defensive record (0.57 goals conceded/game) - Richmond winless in 80% of away games, averaging just 0.60 goals scored - Goal expectancy heavily favors Knoxville (1.64 vs 0.59) - H2H has seen both teams score in 71% of meetings - Knoxville averaging 2.20 points per game vs Richmond's 1.00 Based on the significant home advantage, Richmond's poor away record, and the goal expectancy metrics, the recommended bet is One Knoxville to win.